As you may have noticed, my bracket is about as much use as toilet paper after today. I don't want to talk about it.
Okay, maybe I will in a few hours.
Losing Michigan and Washington today really, really hurt. All in all I took way too many upsets in these early rounds, and didn't have the cojones to pick Cleveland State like I should have. At least Mizzou and UNC are still alive. I would love to see Duke go down right now against Texas, and then maybe Pittsburgh get toppled by Byron Eaton and the Cowboys (yeah, right!).
UPDATE: One fan's first round summary over at Bleacher Report.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Mark's Final Bracket
7:21 PM Wednesday:
Watching Miami (Fl) vs. Providence in the NIT, getting ready to go out to Nevin's with my mom (who I just talked into filling out a bracket for the first time ever!) to watch Northwestern vs. Tulsa.
I just finished the bracket that will be entered into the Mother Bears Just For Fun Pool. I'm not goanna break it down matchup by matchup, but wanted to hit some of the highlights.
MIDWEST: I've got Louisville going to the Final Four. West Virginia over Michigan State in the Sweet Sixteen in Indy. North Dakota State beats Kansas in the first round and we all get to see the famous Bill Self Choker Face. And Arizona downs Utah in the first round on the way to giving Wake a run for their money on Sunday. I almost picked 'Zona to the Sweet Sixteen, but didn't quite have the intestinal fortitude.
WEST: I have Washington taking out one-seed UConn after beating Purdue. On the lower half, I've got Missouri beating Cornell, Utah State, then Memphis in what would be an awesome game, before taking down the Huskies and advancing to the Final Four.
EAST: Pittsburgh to the Final Four. I really don't like this bracket at all! In that spirit, I've taken Minnesota to beat both Texas and Duke on the way to the Sweet Sixteen, where they will be joined by Florida State and Villanova. I love Eric Maynor and had to take VCU to at least win their first game. 'Nova over Tubby's boys in the Round of Sixteen.
SOUTH: Please, please, please, let Ty Lawson's Toe be okay! Like our president, I just had to take the University of North Carolina to not only emerge from the South, but then go on to defeat the ascendant Missouri Tigers in the final. It won't happen if Lawson can't go. In other news, I've got Temple upsetting Arizona State, Michigan downing Oklahoma to get to the Sweet Sixteen, and Illinois joining them there after beating an overrated Gonzaga team in the second round. Michigan becomes the sole Big Ten team to make it to the Elite Eight.
FINAL FOUR: Missouri over Louisville, UNC over Pittsburgh.
CHAMPIONSHIP: UNC 79, Missouri 72.
So there you have it. Can't wait for tomorrow!
Steve's Bracket
So it’s Tuesday and that means I’ve had almost 48 hours to digest the brackets and determine who’s going to win. As of right now, before filling in a single line, I have decided my National champion and half my final four. That does mean however that I am still undecided about the other half. I have been dwelling on this and thinking it over for the past couple hours and am still undecided. I am leaning one way right now but as I fill it out, we will see what emerges.
My biggest dilemma going into this bracket is how to handle Kansas. For those of you who know me, I have put Kansas in my Final Four every year since the Paul Pierce era. At first it was not intentional and just kept happening. After the Kansas’ 2003 title run I made a conscious effort to keep Kansas going to the Final Four, unless it didn’t make sense. Well, last year they finally won it, so the question is, do I keep the streak alive or do I let it end with the title. After roughly a year of thought into this (ok maybe a couple of min) I decided to end the Kansas streak with their title season.
This is a summary of my thoughts while picking my bracket. (I actually pick round by round compared to region by region, but for easier reading I am writing it that way)
A couple of things I am looking at while picking my bracket. Besides Kansas, come tournament time I have always had a sweet spot for Syracuse and I do not why. It has burned me (see 2005) more then it has helped me (see 2003). I am also going to try to ignore my pre-season Final Four predictions to prevent them from having influence on me while making this bracket. Lastly, I am going to follow my rules while picking this bracket.
East
1st Round
Pittsburgh vs ETSU: Pitt
Ok State vs Tenn: OK State is another team I always pick better then they should (my champion two years in a row). The team is not as strong as past teams and I don’t think they can handle Tenn’s up and down tempo. Tenn
Florida State vs Wisconsin: FSU is finally starting to play better, I have thought they could do this well for a couple of years now. But I can’t get that Northwestern game out of my mind. Wisconsin
Xavier vs Portland State: I have heard good things about Portland St. I really like Xavier though. Xavier
UCLA vs VCU: This game frustrates me (there is one more too). When the brackets came out, I was like, oh yeah VCU is going to win. They got Maynor and still can’t forget that Duke game from a few years ago. UCLA has had an up and down year, just really hasn’t played well, so clearly VCU should win. Well, now it seems like everybody is picking VCU as their upset special. I do not like going with the trend on upsets. But on this one, I think I will. VCU
(If you couldn’t tell I’m trying to get good youtube clips for every team that I have losing. I went with that UCLA clip because it’s a really cool and rarely seen view. It really captures the fan reaction. I am sure most of you expected this Gus Johnson classic)
Villanova vs American: Home game for ‘Nova. Not even Close. ‘Nova
Texas vs Minnesota: Tubby is a good tournament coach. I think he can turn around his teams recent slide. Minnesota
Duke vs Binghamton: Duke
2nd Round
Pitt vs Tenn Tenn: Pitt will try to plan grind it out, while Tenn will try to run them off the floor. Pitt will make Tenn play their style and win. Pitt
Xavier vs Wisconsin: Xavier is a better team then Wisconsin. Xavier
VCU vs Villanova: VCU will try it’s best but won’t be able to overcome Villanova and their crowd. ‘Nova
Minnesota vs Duke. Here is a battle to two fantastic coaches who each have national title under their belts. We all know Duke’s Achilles’ heal is if their shots aren’t falling. Minnesota could make it difficult for them. I think Duke gets it done in a close one. Duke
Sweet 16
Pittsburgh vs Xavier: I do not think Xavier will be able to grind it out with Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh
Villanova vs Duke: I think this will be a fast past very entertaining game. I feel this game could go either way depending on if Duke’s shots are falling. I think Duke will do just enough to win. Duke
Elite 8
Pittsburgh vs Duke: Duke’s lack of size will really hurt them this game. Duke won’t be able to stop Pittsburgh from scoring, and will have trouble in their half court offense. I’ve said it every time with Duke, if their shots are falling they can win, but I don’t see them getting enough easy buckets.
EAST REGIONAL CHAMPION: PITTSBURGH
South
1st Round
North Carolina vs Radford: North Carolina
LSU vs Butler: I really like this LSU team. I was actually thinking of picking them to do really well, but maybe not with this seed. LSU
Illinois vs Western Kentucky (see 1:20 mark): Come on, who doesn’t love this guy? This is the other game that frustrates me. I was like, Frasier out, and Illinois goes cold to easily they will lose to WKU. But that’s what everybody thinks. So I actually have changed my mind, and am picking the Fighting Illini. Illinois
Gonzaga vs Akron: I really don’t like Gonzaga this year, but they are better then Akron. Gonzaga
Arizona St. vs Temple: ASU was one of my teams I had high expectations earlier in the season. They have defiantly fallen back to earth. I think they barely get by Temple. ASU
Syracuse vs S.F. Austin: Syracuse had that good run in the Big East tournament. I think they carry that momentum in to the tournament. Syracuse
Clemson vs Michigan: This is the first round game I want to watch. Besides my personal fondness for each team for different reasons, I think it will be a great contest with contrasting style. I think Michigan’s 1-3-1 creates too many problems for Clemson (similar to what they did to Duke). Michigan
Oklahoma vs Morgan State : Oklahoma
2nd Round
North Carolina vs LSU: I do really like LSU, but they UNC will be too much for them with or without Lawson playing well. North Carolina
Illinois vs Gonzaga: I do not like this Gonzaga team, but they have played fantastic defense this year, and Illinois can go anemic on offense. Gonzaga
Arizona State vs Syracuse: Two teams going in different directions. Syracuse
Michigan vs Oklahoma: Oklahoma hasn’t seen anything like Michigan all year, and I don’t know how they will react, I think Michigan can contain Griffith and pull of the upset. Michigan
Sweet 16
North Carolina vs Gonzaga: I’ve said it all along, I really don’t like this Gonzaga team. I think Lawson will be all the way back at this point and UNC roles. North Carolina
Syracuse vs Michigan: A good game, and I still think Michigan’s defense will give Syracuse headaches, but I think Syracuse will be able to figure it out and pull off the W. Syracuse
Elite 8
North Carolina vs Syracuse: A great match-up between two traditionally dominant team. Syracuse playing well but I do not think they have anyone that can match or slow down Psycho T.
SOUTH REGIONAL CHAMPION: North Carolina
Midwest
1st Round
Louisville vs Morehead State: Louisville easily
Ohio St vs Siena: This game is supposed to be a good match up. I think either could win, but Thad Matta’s got his kids playing well lately. I don’t think either of these teams will beat Louisville so this game doesn’t matter that much. Ohio St.
Utah vs Arizona: ‘Zona has not had a good season, they lose there coach amoung other problems. I don’t think they should be in the tourney. Utah
Cleveland vs Wake Forest: I have heard nothing but great things about Cleveland St. They have a very senior team and good guard play which is key for the tournament. Wake was a #1 seed earlier in the year when they started off the season with double digit wins before they finally lost. I really really want to take Cleveland St, but. Wake Forest
West Virginia vs Dayton: Huggins and Ebanks roll. West Virginia
Kansas vs North Dakota St: NDSU is a great story making it to the big dance in their first year eligible, but Kansas is too much for them. Kansas
Boston College vs USC: It’s the Celtics vs Lakers on ABC NEXT! I don’t like USC, but I don’t trust BC. USC
Michigan St vs Robert Morris: MSU
2nd Round
Louisville vs Ohio State: Ohio St has been playing better, but Louisville is too good. ‘Ville
Utah vs Wake Forest Wake Forest: I actually like Utah in this game. Wake started off great, but not the best as of late: Utah
West Virginia vs Kansas: I think if this game happens it will be a fantastic game going back and forth. Huggins has not done the best in the tournament, and Self is finally over that hill. Kansas
USC vs Michigan St: I don’t like USC, don’t think they are that good this year even though they won the Pac-10 Tournament. I think this is the end of their run. MSU
Sweet 16
Louisville vs Utah: Utah will have made a nice run, but Rick will have the Cards playing well and cruise to an easy victory. ‘Ville
Kansas vs Michigan St: Self used to coach Illinois so he does know how to play against Izzo. Kansas is too young of a team to compete against the more experience Michigan State. MSU is also a lot deeper then Kansas. MSU
Elite 8
Louisville vs Michigan State: This is one game I have gone back and forth on all day. I don’t quite trust Louisville but I also don’t quite trust Michigan St. I was then looking at my south bracket, and I don’t trust any team from the South to make the Championship game either, so looking at the big picture of these two teams and those two teams, I had to decided who I liked the best to make the Championship game. With that in mind.
MIDWEST REGIONAL CHAMPION: Louisville
WEST
1st round
UConn vs Chattanooga: UConn
BYU vs Texas A&M: BYU hasn’t won a tournament game in like 10 years, well add another one to that: Texas A&M
Purdue vs Northern Iowa: Can I really do it, pick all 7 Big Ten teams winning the first round? Well, Purdue is finally playing well. Purdue
Washington vs Mississippi State: Washington won the Pac-10 regular season title, not the tourney title. Miss St needed to win the SEC tournament just to make it. SEC is not that strong this year. Washington
Marquette vs Utah State: Utah St is surprisingly good and experienced. Dominic James being hurt is bad for Marquette. Utah St.
Missouri vs Cornell: I love, love picking Ivy League school, but IU Beat Cornell this year. Mizzou
California vs Maryland: Don’t really have much thoughts on either team. Neither can beat Memphis. California
Memphis vs CS NorthRidge : Memphis
2nd Round
UConn vs Texas A&M: UConn should win this game pretty easily: UConn
Purdue vs Washington: Purdue plays good defense and with Hummel scoring I think they can and will beat Washington. Purdue
Utah State vs Missouri: I do think Utah St will play Missouri tough for most the game. Missouri is deeper team and I think their 40 minutes of hell will tier out Utah St and allow them to pull away in the end. Missouri
Memphis vs California: Memphis should roll this game. Memphis
Sweet 16
UConn vs Purdue: If Dyson would be playing for Connecticut I would say they win this one no problem. But without Dyson I don’t think UConn’s guard play can keep up with Purdue’s guards. I think Thabeet will play well, but I think Purdue will win the game.
Missouri vs Memphis: If this game happens I think this will be the game of the Sweet 16. I know Memphis shoots better free throws and plays better defense, but I don’t think they are as good as last years team and I think this will be the end of the road for them. Missouri
Elite 8
Purdue vs Missouri: Another potentially exciting match up. Big Ten tournament champion vs Big XII tournament champion. As stated earlier I don’t like either of these team could make it to the title game. If Purdue can slow down Missouri and have time to set up their defense I think they can could beat them. I do not think they will be able to do that.
WEST REGIONAL CHAMPION: MISSOURI
Final Four
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina: Both teams have good guard play as well as solid inside presence. I think Pittsburgh big men will slow down Pysco T and for the second straight year UNC will bow out a game short of the national title game. Pittsburgh
Louisville vs Missouri: Well I’ve kind of given away what I think here. I do not think Missouri is national title game material. I really don’t trust Louisville either, but I like them better then anyone else from their side of the bracket. Louisville
National Title Game
Pittsburgh vs Louisville: A Big East showdown for the title game. These two have had some good games earlier this year. I think Pittsburgh is the better team though. (Found this link funny and appropriate for this spot. Even if I don’t find it true)
NATIONAL CHAMPION: PITTSBURGH
So there it is, then winning bracket. I will scan a copy in and post it tomorrow or Thursday so you can see history happening.
Quick analysis of my own bracket.
What I like:
Big Ten Teams. I think the Big Ten will have a good tournament, but I don’t think they have that top tier team to make it to the Final Four
Trends. I got two teams in from the Big East, Louisville and Pittsburgh, and a return team, North Carolina
What I don’t like:
I don’t like that I have three #1 seeds in the Final Four. I know that they are the elite teams, but I still thin there is more parody in the college hoops.
I do not like that I have two teams from the one conference in the championship game. I understand the Big East was phenomenal this year, but I do not like that.
So tell me what you think. Do you like Pitt as the champions? What picks do I have totally wrong? Leave comments below
My biggest dilemma going into this bracket is how to handle Kansas. For those of you who know me, I have put Kansas in my Final Four every year since the Paul Pierce era. At first it was not intentional and just kept happening. After the Kansas’ 2003 title run I made a conscious effort to keep Kansas going to the Final Four, unless it didn’t make sense. Well, last year they finally won it, so the question is, do I keep the streak alive or do I let it end with the title. After roughly a year of thought into this (ok maybe a couple of min) I decided to end the Kansas streak with their title season.
This is a summary of my thoughts while picking my bracket. (I actually pick round by round compared to region by region, but for easier reading I am writing it that way)
A couple of things I am looking at while picking my bracket. Besides Kansas, come tournament time I have always had a sweet spot for Syracuse and I do not why. It has burned me (see 2005) more then it has helped me (see 2003). I am also going to try to ignore my pre-season Final Four predictions to prevent them from having influence on me while making this bracket. Lastly, I am going to follow my rules while picking this bracket.
East
1st Round
Pittsburgh vs ETSU: Pitt
Ok State vs Tenn: OK State is another team I always pick better then they should (my champion two years in a row). The team is not as strong as past teams and I don’t think they can handle Tenn’s up and down tempo. Tenn
Florida State vs Wisconsin: FSU is finally starting to play better, I have thought they could do this well for a couple of years now. But I can’t get that Northwestern game out of my mind. Wisconsin
Xavier vs Portland State: I have heard good things about Portland St. I really like Xavier though. Xavier
UCLA vs VCU: This game frustrates me (there is one more too). When the brackets came out, I was like, oh yeah VCU is going to win. They got Maynor and still can’t forget that Duke game from a few years ago. UCLA has had an up and down year, just really hasn’t played well, so clearly VCU should win. Well, now it seems like everybody is picking VCU as their upset special. I do not like going with the trend on upsets. But on this one, I think I will. VCU
(If you couldn’t tell I’m trying to get good youtube clips for every team that I have losing. I went with that UCLA clip because it’s a really cool and rarely seen view. It really captures the fan reaction. I am sure most of you expected this Gus Johnson classic)
Villanova vs American: Home game for ‘Nova. Not even Close. ‘Nova
Texas vs Minnesota: Tubby is a good tournament coach. I think he can turn around his teams recent slide. Minnesota
Duke vs Binghamton: Duke
2nd Round
Pitt vs Tenn Tenn: Pitt will try to plan grind it out, while Tenn will try to run them off the floor. Pitt will make Tenn play their style and win. Pitt
Xavier vs Wisconsin: Xavier is a better team then Wisconsin. Xavier
VCU vs Villanova: VCU will try it’s best but won’t be able to overcome Villanova and their crowd. ‘Nova
Minnesota vs Duke. Here is a battle to two fantastic coaches who each have national title under their belts. We all know Duke’s Achilles’ heal is if their shots aren’t falling. Minnesota could make it difficult for them. I think Duke gets it done in a close one. Duke
Sweet 16
Pittsburgh vs Xavier: I do not think Xavier will be able to grind it out with Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh
Villanova vs Duke: I think this will be a fast past very entertaining game. I feel this game could go either way depending on if Duke’s shots are falling. I think Duke will do just enough to win. Duke
Elite 8
Pittsburgh vs Duke: Duke’s lack of size will really hurt them this game. Duke won’t be able to stop Pittsburgh from scoring, and will have trouble in their half court offense. I’ve said it every time with Duke, if their shots are falling they can win, but I don’t see them getting enough easy buckets.
EAST REGIONAL CHAMPION: PITTSBURGH
South
1st Round
North Carolina vs Radford: North Carolina
LSU vs Butler: I really like this LSU team. I was actually thinking of picking them to do really well, but maybe not with this seed. LSU
Illinois vs Western Kentucky (see 1:20 mark): Come on, who doesn’t love this guy? This is the other game that frustrates me. I was like, Frasier out, and Illinois goes cold to easily they will lose to WKU. But that’s what everybody thinks. So I actually have changed my mind, and am picking the Fighting Illini. Illinois
Gonzaga vs Akron: I really don’t like Gonzaga this year, but they are better then Akron. Gonzaga
Arizona St. vs Temple: ASU was one of my teams I had high expectations earlier in the season. They have defiantly fallen back to earth. I think they barely get by Temple. ASU
Syracuse vs S.F. Austin: Syracuse had that good run in the Big East tournament. I think they carry that momentum in to the tournament. Syracuse
Clemson vs Michigan: This is the first round game I want to watch. Besides my personal fondness for each team for different reasons, I think it will be a great contest with contrasting style. I think Michigan’s 1-3-1 creates too many problems for Clemson (similar to what they did to Duke). Michigan
Oklahoma vs Morgan State : Oklahoma
2nd Round
North Carolina vs LSU: I do really like LSU, but they UNC will be too much for them with or without Lawson playing well. North Carolina
Illinois vs Gonzaga: I do not like this Gonzaga team, but they have played fantastic defense this year, and Illinois can go anemic on offense. Gonzaga
Arizona State vs Syracuse: Two teams going in different directions. Syracuse
Michigan vs Oklahoma: Oklahoma hasn’t seen anything like Michigan all year, and I don’t know how they will react, I think Michigan can contain Griffith and pull of the upset. Michigan
Sweet 16
North Carolina vs Gonzaga: I’ve said it all along, I really don’t like this Gonzaga team. I think Lawson will be all the way back at this point and UNC roles. North Carolina
Syracuse vs Michigan: A good game, and I still think Michigan’s defense will give Syracuse headaches, but I think Syracuse will be able to figure it out and pull off the W. Syracuse
Elite 8
North Carolina vs Syracuse: A great match-up between two traditionally dominant team. Syracuse playing well but I do not think they have anyone that can match or slow down Psycho T.
SOUTH REGIONAL CHAMPION: North Carolina
Midwest
1st Round
Louisville vs Morehead State: Louisville easily
Ohio St vs Siena: This game is supposed to be a good match up. I think either could win, but Thad Matta’s got his kids playing well lately. I don’t think either of these teams will beat Louisville so this game doesn’t matter that much. Ohio St.
Utah vs Arizona: ‘Zona has not had a good season, they lose there coach amoung other problems. I don’t think they should be in the tourney. Utah
Cleveland vs Wake Forest: I have heard nothing but great things about Cleveland St. They have a very senior team and good guard play which is key for the tournament. Wake was a #1 seed earlier in the year when they started off the season with double digit wins before they finally lost. I really really want to take Cleveland St, but. Wake Forest
West Virginia vs Dayton: Huggins and Ebanks roll. West Virginia
Kansas vs North Dakota St: NDSU is a great story making it to the big dance in their first year eligible, but Kansas is too much for them. Kansas
Boston College vs USC: It’s the Celtics vs Lakers on ABC NEXT! I don’t like USC, but I don’t trust BC. USC
Michigan St vs Robert Morris: MSU
2nd Round
Louisville vs Ohio State: Ohio St has been playing better, but Louisville is too good. ‘Ville
Utah vs Wake Forest Wake Forest: I actually like Utah in this game. Wake started off great, but not the best as of late: Utah
West Virginia vs Kansas: I think if this game happens it will be a fantastic game going back and forth. Huggins has not done the best in the tournament, and Self is finally over that hill. Kansas
USC vs Michigan St: I don’t like USC, don’t think they are that good this year even though they won the Pac-10 Tournament. I think this is the end of their run. MSU
Sweet 16
Louisville vs Utah: Utah will have made a nice run, but Rick will have the Cards playing well and cruise to an easy victory. ‘Ville
Kansas vs Michigan St: Self used to coach Illinois so he does know how to play against Izzo. Kansas is too young of a team to compete against the more experience Michigan State. MSU is also a lot deeper then Kansas. MSU
Elite 8
Louisville vs Michigan State: This is one game I have gone back and forth on all day. I don’t quite trust Louisville but I also don’t quite trust Michigan St. I was then looking at my south bracket, and I don’t trust any team from the South to make the Championship game either, so looking at the big picture of these two teams and those two teams, I had to decided who I liked the best to make the Championship game. With that in mind.
MIDWEST REGIONAL CHAMPION: Louisville
WEST
1st round
UConn vs Chattanooga: UConn
BYU vs Texas A&M: BYU hasn’t won a tournament game in like 10 years, well add another one to that: Texas A&M
Purdue vs Northern Iowa: Can I really do it, pick all 7 Big Ten teams winning the first round? Well, Purdue is finally playing well. Purdue
Washington vs Mississippi State: Washington won the Pac-10 regular season title, not the tourney title. Miss St needed to win the SEC tournament just to make it. SEC is not that strong this year. Washington
Marquette vs Utah State: Utah St is surprisingly good and experienced. Dominic James being hurt is bad for Marquette. Utah St.
Missouri vs Cornell: I love, love picking Ivy League school, but IU Beat Cornell this year. Mizzou
California vs Maryland: Don’t really have much thoughts on either team. Neither can beat Memphis. California
Memphis vs CS NorthRidge : Memphis
2nd Round
UConn vs Texas A&M: UConn should win this game pretty easily: UConn
Purdue vs Washington: Purdue plays good defense and with Hummel scoring I think they can and will beat Washington. Purdue
Utah State vs Missouri: I do think Utah St will play Missouri tough for most the game. Missouri is deeper team and I think their 40 minutes of hell will tier out Utah St and allow them to pull away in the end. Missouri
Memphis vs California: Memphis should roll this game. Memphis
Sweet 16
UConn vs Purdue: If Dyson would be playing for Connecticut I would say they win this one no problem. But without Dyson I don’t think UConn’s guard play can keep up with Purdue’s guards. I think Thabeet will play well, but I think Purdue will win the game.
Missouri vs Memphis: If this game happens I think this will be the game of the Sweet 16. I know Memphis shoots better free throws and plays better defense, but I don’t think they are as good as last years team and I think this will be the end of the road for them. Missouri
Elite 8
Purdue vs Missouri: Another potentially exciting match up. Big Ten tournament champion vs Big XII tournament champion. As stated earlier I don’t like either of these team could make it to the title game. If Purdue can slow down Missouri and have time to set up their defense I think they can could beat them. I do not think they will be able to do that.
WEST REGIONAL CHAMPION: MISSOURI
Final Four
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina: Both teams have good guard play as well as solid inside presence. I think Pittsburgh big men will slow down Pysco T and for the second straight year UNC will bow out a game short of the national title game. Pittsburgh
Louisville vs Missouri: Well I’ve kind of given away what I think here. I do not think Missouri is national title game material. I really don’t trust Louisville either, but I like them better then anyone else from their side of the bracket. Louisville
National Title Game
Pittsburgh vs Louisville: A Big East showdown for the title game. These two have had some good games earlier this year. I think Pittsburgh is the better team though. (Found this link funny and appropriate for this spot. Even if I don’t find it true)
NATIONAL CHAMPION: PITTSBURGH
So there it is, then winning bracket. I will scan a copy in and post it tomorrow or Thursday so you can see history happening.
Quick analysis of my own bracket.
What I like:
Big Ten Teams. I think the Big Ten will have a good tournament, but I don’t think they have that top tier team to make it to the Final Four
Trends. I got two teams in from the Big East, Louisville and Pittsburgh, and a return team, North Carolina
What I don’t like:
I don’t like that I have three #1 seeds in the Final Four. I know that they are the elite teams, but I still thin there is more parody in the college hoops.
I do not like that I have two teams from the one conference in the championship game. I understand the Big East was phenomenal this year, but I do not like that.
So tell me what you think. Do you like Pitt as the champions? What picks do I have totally wrong? Leave comments below
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Most confusing game of the year
Well it's that time of the year again. Bulls vs Celtics on St. Patty's day. The Bulls are the home team will be wearing the all-green jersey and the Celtics will be wearing thier home white jersey's with the green trim. I won't be able to tell who is who for half the game.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Five Reasons To Love The NIT
College basketball is a magical thing, and we fans are on a collision course for three of the finest weekends of the year. The brackets are out and being pored over. The one seeds are dealing with the pressure, the Cinderellas are still to be determined, and only one team gets to walk away from this 2008-09 season with a win and a trophy.
Actually, two teams get to do that.
The NIT, which is undoubtedly the red-headed stepchild of the college tournament world, gets no respect. But as a Northwestern fan, this year I'm finally going to change that. How 'bout some love for the little guys? Here are five reasons to love, or at least to enjoy, the National Invitation Tournament this year.
5. NCAA opening round games start Thursday. Today is Tuesday. Only fifty-some hours before anything actually happens in those brackets we've all been agonizing over. EXCEPT - the NIT opening round games start today! And they're on the ESPN Network. That's right. Real, live college basketball, and even better, none of these games can ruin your precious bracket.
4. Cinderellas past and present. Just a few short years ago, George Mason shocked the world by crashing the Final Four. This year, they're a 7-seed in the NIT, and they are slated to duel overachieving Penn State (who probably deserved Arizona's NCAA bid) and Big Ten Coach Of The Year Ed DeChellis.
3. Which brings me to Number Eight. Great coaches. Yeah, you can find your Boeheims, Calhouns, Roy Williamses, and so on, in the Big Dance, but the Little Big Dance features some serious non-slouches, too! Billy Donovan's Florida team is a one seed in the NIT and plays in-state (not quite) rival Jacksonville in the first round.
Dana Altman and Creighton have another one seed. And Tony Bennett's Washington State squad finds themselves in a West Coast throwdown tomorrow against Patrick Mills and St. Mary's, another bubble team done wrong. These are only a few of the superb coaches battling in the NIT this season.
2. Speaking of Patrick "Patty" Mills (Happy St. Paddy's Day!), how 'bout the collegiate superstars of this years' NIT? In addition to Mills, Stephen Curry and Davidson are doing the Little Dance, and play South Carolina in the first round.
Luke Harangody (Remember him from preseason POY speculation?) and underachieving Notre Dame play University of Alabama-Birmingham, who feature their own beast of the three, Robert Vaden. I didn't even mention Mike Davis in Number Eight! (Okay, so maybe that wasn't an accident.) And how about Jodie Meeks of Kentucky? He dropped 54 in a game earlier this year, and gets another chance to do it at home against UNLV tonight on ESPN.
1. Ladies and gentlemen, Northwestern University! My Wildcats have never gone to the NCAA Tournament. Never. Literally every other high-conference, any other mid-major conference team, has gone to the tourney at least once in the last sixty-odd years. Well, Bill Carmody, Kevin Coble, and senior guard Craig Moore came so close this year that the 'Cats faithful could literally taste the dance.
One more win, whether against Illinois at home, at Purdue in a heartbreaker, or against Minnesota this past weekend in the Big Ten Tourney, and the Wildcats could have been dancing. They start Wednesday against Tulsa, and if they win that game, they get SEC up-and-comer Auburn in Round Two. I'm rooting hard for these Cinderella 'Cats to join whoever ends up taking down the real nets in Detroit, and finish 2009 with a win and a banner to raise.
NCAA Pre-Season and NCAA Tournament Games
So the tournament is almost upon us - I figured it would be a good time to look back and forward.
Now that the field is set let’s take a quick look back at my pre-season predictions for the Final Four for this NCAA basketball season
The Good!
North Carolina
This one looks pretty good. They are the number 3 over all number 1 seed. If Ty Lawson is healthy this team has the potential to win it all. If he doesn’t play, or play that well, I still don’t see much competition from the rest of the south. Looks pretty good
UConn
This one also looks pretty good. Not quite as good as UNC because of Dyson being out. But there are very few players who can change a team’s strategy like Thabeet. He is a monster on defense and starting to figure it out on offense. Memphis is a touch draw for them if they go that far. Looks good, not great.
The OK!
Purdue
Well they are in one of the top 20 seeds in the tournament. They struggled during stretches but not the Hummel is playing again they were able to perform more at the level I expected them. They did just win the Big Ten Tournament but they will run into UConn and Memphis if they go.
The Bad
Notre Dame
Well Mr. Harangody and Co. couldn’t keep the home court streak in tack or make it out of the tough Big East. Yeah, not too good a year for the Irish; Well at least St. Patty’s Day is still coming!
So I did ok with my predictions. Notre Dame really hurt me, and the fact that Purdue and UConn will have to play each other means the max my pre-season I can get right is 2. We will wait and find out how I did.
Now looking forward it’s time to fill out the brackets!
I traditionally wait until Tuesday to fill out my brackets just so I don’t make any rash and dumb decisions. I will have a post about this tomorrow
I will be doing at least 2 pools and maybe three. The for sure ones that I am doing is the office and family (free and bragging rights) pools. I am sure I will get roped into a few more.
I am also doing a fantasy tournament. In this, there are 11 teams and 25 players per team. Each team picks players in the tournament. Which ever team's 25 players score the most points throughout the tournament wins.
So not only do you want to take somebody who's going to score a bunch of points, but you want players going deep. If a guys scores 20 ppg, but loses in the first round, you only get 20 points; but if you have a guy scoring 5 points a game over 6 games, that's 30 points.
Pay out is:
Top three Scoring Teams pay out
Team with the highest individual scorer pays out
Each rounds highest scorer pays out
So there’s lots of ways to win. Here’s the official site for it http://swkncaa.com/
The last thing I might compete in is a Tournament Auction. Starting with the 16 Seed each team is auctioned off. 16 Seeds go for like a dollar while 1 seeds go for $150+. Each win your team gets, the more money they bring in. I am not sure if I will be participation in this auction this year.
There are lots of ways to enjoy the tournament, let me know of some of the things you guys will be doing.
Lastly, some random info about this year’s tournament. The State of Ohio is sending 5 teams to the tournament which is the most of any state. California, New York, Pennsylvania and Tennessee are all sending 4. 33 of the 50 states are represented.
NIT: The Red-Headed Stepchild
I'll have more on this story tomorrow, but obviously the brackets came out today. Northwestern finds itself as a 5-seed in the NIT and plays Tulsa in the first round. The 1 seed in their bracket is Auburn and Virginia Tech is the 2. I would love to see Craig Moore and the boys play well in the consolation tourney.
More coming tomorrow!
More coming tomorrow!
Sunday, March 15, 2009
How to Pick a Bracket
All right, we’ve all seen the crazy gimmick of how to pick your brackets. My personal favorites are choosing which team has the shortest name. This is particularly useful in years when Duke and UCLA (Yes if I chose longest names, UCLA would be come University of California in Los Angeles, they can be useful either way) are good. I also like the dominant mascot way of picking, mainly for the logic and reasoning of the picks. A Hoosier is probably a farmer, and a razorback is basically a pig, and farmers take care of pigs, so clearly the farmer wins! Funny how you can set up a mascot fight and have the team you want to win come out on top of it right?
But even though we always try to replicate the random logic some people use. We know someone’s cousin Emily will pick based on their favorite color, somehow predict George Mason reaching the Final Four, and then win the pool.
(Speaking of George Mason, I will always claim some credit with them. I picked Michigan State to beat them in the first game. But, I had Michigan State beating exactly every team they beat on there way to the final four. That’s got to count for something right, right?)
Fear no more, armchairsuperstar.blogspot.com is here to help!
What is the key to winning the bracket? Getting teams into the Final Four! Regardless of scoring, those teams get you points each and every round they are right and even more points when they have reach the final four.
I actually have done some statistical analysis on the Final Four for ever year since 1985 (The Year it expanded to 64 teams) and have noticed two trends.
1st Trend: 2 teams from 1 conference make it to the final four.
Of the past 24 tournaments 2 teams from 1 conference have made the Final Four 17 times (1985 the Big East had 3 teams that made it). That’s 71% of the time.
Now you might be thinking, ok great, 2 teams from 1 conference. Well how many conferences are there? Agreed it may seem difficult to pick which conference it is going to be. But as of writing, ESPN Bracketology expert Joe Lundardi (who btw went 65 for 65 in 2008) has only 10 conferences with multiple bids. So that narrows down your field quite a bit. Now you also have to think that the conferences with only 2 or 3 teams will most likely not be able to have 2 of them making the Final Four So now we are only talking about 6 conferences to choose from. That’s not that bad.
Looking at the potential teams this year; I think the best options of having multiple teams make the final four are the Big East (with potentially 3 number 1s) and the ACC. Big Ten fans might be screaming that they have more teams in the tournament, so should they be considered. Yes they have a bunch of good teams, but I don’t feel like they have 2 elite teams that could make it to the Final Four.
2nd Trend: A team from last years Final Four will return to the Final Four
Of the past 24 tournaments, 15 times a team from the previous years Final Four has made it back to the Final Four (In 1991 and 2007 two teams returned to the Final Four). That’s 63% of the time. Again I know not a super high number.
Think of it this way. If you knew nothing about basketball besides the last years final four; there is a 15% chance you get one right. That’s blindly picking. What if you watch college basketball and know stuff about teams. Like last year, UCLA was a number 1 seed, and was likely to make it again.
Looking at the potential teams this year (Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA) I feel like UNC has the best chance of getting back. They got the point guard play that is needed to get through the tournament as well as a more then sufficient inside game with Psycho T. Memphis still scares me with their relatively weak schedule this year. I was starting to like Kansas again until the loss to Baylor. UCLA could be another potential team that could do it, but I am not as confident in them as I am in UNC.
So what are the odds that both 2 teams from 1 conference and a return team happen in the same year? Well, these odds are a lot lower. Only 10 times in the past 24 years has this occurred. That's 41%. Now that's not a bad percentage but probably not as high as you would like.
Now you might be asking, ok these odds are really not that overwhelming, why should I pick my bracket this way? Well Either 2 teams from 1 conference or a repeat team returning to the final four has occurred 23 of 24 times!!! Only one year has neither trend occurred. That is why you should consider picking your brackets this way.
Here is a year by year breakdown of the two trends.
2 From 1 Con (Y/N) Return Teams (#) Both (Y/N)
2008 No 1 No
2007 No 2 No
2006 Yes 0 No
2005 Yes 0 No
2004 Yes 0 No
2003 Yes 1 Yes
2002 Yes 1 Yes
2001 Yes 1 Yes
2000 Yes 1 Yes
1999 Yes 0 No
1998 No 1 No
1997 No 1 No
1996 Yes 0 Yes
1995 No 1 No
1994 Yes 0 Yes
1993 No 1 No
1992 Yes 1 Yes
1991 Yes 2 Yes
1990 Yes 1 Yes
1989 Yes 1 Yes
1988 Yes 0 No
1987 Yes 0 No
1986 No 0 No
1985 Yes 1 Yes
Now I am not saying that these will guarantee success or even to use them. But just something to think about while your picking your bracket.
I have just one small disclaimer that makes me sound like a Wall-Street analyst. Past performance does not indicate future earnings. So take this information with a grain of salt.
The point of doing the brackets is to have fun. So have fun and enjoy March Madness!
One last side note: Since there is a lot of which conference is better then every other conference trash talk going on nowadays, here’s a breakdown of how many times each conferences have had multiple final four teams.
Big Ten
5
ACC
4
SEC
3
Big XII (Big 8)
3
Big East
2