Top Chef Stats: Who's For Real?

Wikipedia has a great and detailed statsheet on every Top Chef season - you can find the main page here. I thought I'd take a quick look at this season's Final Six and how some of them stack up to past contestants. Going by the authoritative Noffke Power Rankings, here they are:

Kevin "Red Beard" Gillespie - 4 wins, 6 total top finishes, 4 quickfire wins. One low.

Michael Voltaggio - 2 wins, 8 tops, 1 QF win, one low.

Bryan Voltaggio - 3 wins, 6 tops, no QF wins, no lows.

Jennifer - 1 win, 5 tops, 3 QF wins, two lows.

Eli - 0 wins, 4 tops, 1 QF win, one low.

Robin - 0 wins, 1 tops, 2 QF wins, three lows.

A couple of numbers jump out at you right away. First off, Kevin and Michael have been pretty dominant this season. Kevin's four elimination and four quickfire wins lead both of those categories. Meanwhile, Michael's eight times in the top category for eliminations is pretty huge.

His older brother, on the other hand, has been a model of consistency. With three elimination wins versus zero times on the bottom, he has been the safest bet of any contestant. At the same time, he has no quickfire wins and fewer times in front of the judges for the right reasons than his li'l bro.

Jennifer's three Quickfire victories trails only Kevin in that category, but her two-in-a-row in the bottom indicates a downward spiral reminscent of Jamie from last year.

On that topic, here is who our top contestants most closely parallel from previous seasons.

Season Two's Sam won three Quickfires, but by the six-contestant divider had many more low finishes (three) than Redbeard, plus only one win and five top eliminations. Season Three's Trey won three elimination challenges by Episode Eight, but was shut out in the Quickfires. Harold from Season One, arguably one of the most dominant competitors from past seasons, had just one win before the final, and only two total QF's.

Looking at these numbers, it's pretty amazing how consistent the top three this year have been. The best comparison for any of them can be found in S4's Richard Blaise, a personal favorite of mine. Through the six-elimation episode, Blaise had three wins and five high finishes to go with three QF wins, but also had a pair of bottom finishes.

On the opposite end, it's worth noting that bottom finishes don't necessarily doom you. Season One's Tiffani made it to the final following two straight bottoms (pay attention, Jennifer!)

And the chef I most compare to Robin, S4's Lisa, had SIX times facing elimination before making it to the final, with only one win out of two highs, and not a single time in even the top three of a QF.

So a couple of things stand out here, after this half-assed analysis.

First off, the Voltaggios and Kevin are easily the best chefs in Top Chef history, statistically speaking. Nobody has come close to these three in consistent high achievement.

Secondly, Robin doesn't deserve to still be around, but Angry Dyke Lisa deserved to be around even less a couple of years ago. This just goes to show that creating drama will make you stick around even when your food hasn't pulled its weight.

I'm looking forward to a great final as the Brothers Volt go head to head to see who gets to try and knock off Redbeard from his deserved throne as the finest chef in TC history.