NFC East
x - 1. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
2. Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
3. New York Giants 9-7
4. Washington Redskins 7-9
NFC North
z - 1. Chicago Bears 12-4
w - 2. Green Bay Packers 11-5
3. Minnesota Vikings 7-9
4. Detroit Lions 5-11
NFC West
x - 1. San Francisco 49ers 9-7
2. Seattle Seahawks 8-8
3. Arizona Cardinals 6-10
4. St. Louis Rams 3-13
NFC South
y - 1. New Orleans Saints 11-5
w - 2. Atlanta Falcons 9-7
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9
4. Carolina Panthers 4-12
AFC
AFC East
z - 1. New England Patriots 12-4
2. Miami Dolphins 10-6
3. New York Jets 7-9
4. Buffalo Bills 3-13
AFC North
x - 1. Baltimore Ravens 11-5
w - 2. Cincinnati Bengals 11-5
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8
4. Cleveland Browns 4-12
AFC West
x - 1. Oakland Raiders 10-6
2. San Diego Chargers 7-9
3. Kansas City Chiefs 6-10
4. Denver Broncos 4-12
AFC South
y - 1. Houston Texans 12-4
w - 2. Indianapolis Colts 11-5
3. Tennessee Titans 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10
PLAYOFFS:
AFC Wildcard Round:
Oakland Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts - Colts 31 - 17
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals 24-21
NFC Wildcard Round:
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys - Atlanta Falcons 21-20
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers - Green Bay Packers 34 - 17
AFC Divisional Round:
New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts - Colts 28-27
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans - Bengals 27-24
NFC Divisional Round:
Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints - Packers 27-20
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons - Bears 21-17
AFC Conference Championship
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals 31-27
NFC Conference Championship
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears - Bears 24-23
Super Bowl Championship
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Chicago Bears - Bears 37-17
There you have it, the Chicago Bears are my Super Bowl pick. As to how confident I am in the Bears, 100%. How confident I am in the Bengals, less than 1%. I had them getting beat in multiple rounds of the playoffs as I did this (at one point they didn't even make the playoffs).