Fodor's NFL Dark Horse

First off, I want to apologize to my mom and the Noffke family and Ryan (and anyone else reading this post. Aw hell, who am I kidding?) for my lack of productivity lately.

I'm sorry.

Secondly, I wanted to get this out there TODAY so that nobody can accuse me of being a bandwagon jumper once their season starts, because what I'm about to say is something I've been thinking about for at least a week.

My sleeper pick to improve hugely this year and go to the playoffs is the Kansas City Chiefs. I'm going to put them at 10-6.

I think they beat San Diego tomorrow at home and win the AFC West outright. Bear in mind, Denver and Oakland are already 0-1, so the winner of tomorrow's Monday Night late game will be all alone atop the division to start the year.

Why pick this team to succeed? Partially, I just love their running backs setup. Jamaal Charles is an incredible talent with fresh legs and speed to burn. He was Top 3 overall in the second half of last season as a fantasy running back.

You all know how I feel about Thomas Jones, AKA the NFL's second best running back over the last four years. Nobody has more yards over that time than TJ, at least nobody not named LaDanian.

But additionally, I think the KC defense could be good, with the number of high draft picks they've invested over the last three years.

I think Dexter McCluster from (from? Hint: SEC)... well, I think he could have a Devin Hester-esque impact on the return game.

Matt Cassel and Charlie Weis are back together. Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennell can destroy an Old Country Buffet like no tandem since the days of Traylor and Washington in Chicago, so you know the two former Belichek assistants are happy to see each other.


Oh, and clubhouse cancer Larry Johnson is gone.

Anyway, call me crazy, but there it is. Kansas City Chiefs to the playoffs. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Want some numerical projections?

Jamaal Charles 1,800 total yards
Thomas Jones 1,100 rush yards
Dexter McCluster 3 or more return TDs.
No other team in the AFC West better than 8-8.

NFL Predictions

Well, today is the first day of the NFL and I'm going to make my predictions for how the year goes. I will start off in the NFC East and work my way down. At the end there will be a Super Bowl winner. We will see if I am right at the end of the year. The abbreviations next to some names mean: w = wildcard spot; x = division winner; y = division winner + bye week; z = division winner + homefield advantage throughout.

NFC East

x - 1. Dallas Cowboys 10-6

2. Philadelphia Eagles 9-7

3. New York Giants 9-7

4. Washington Redskins 7-9

NFC North

z - 1. Chicago Bears 12-4

w - 2. Green Bay Packers 11-5

3. Minnesota Vikings 7-9

4. Detroit Lions 5-11

NFC West

x - 1. San Francisco 49ers 9-7

2. Seattle Seahawks 8-8

3. Arizona Cardinals 6-10

4. St. Louis Rams 3-13

NFC South

y - 1. New Orleans Saints 11-5

w - 2. Atlanta Falcons 9-7

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9

4. Carolina Panthers 4-12

AFC

AFC East

z - 1. New England Patriots 12-4

2. Miami Dolphins 10-6

3. New York Jets 7-9

4. Buffalo Bills 3-13

AFC North

x - 1. Baltimore Ravens 11-5

w - 2. Cincinnati Bengals 11-5

3. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8

4. Cleveland Browns 4-12

AFC West

x - 1. Oakland Raiders 10-6

2. San Diego Chargers 7-9

3. Kansas City Chiefs 6-10

4. Denver Broncos 4-12

AFC South

y - 1. Houston Texans 12-4

w - 2. Indianapolis Colts 11-5

3. Tennessee Titans 7-9

4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10

PLAYOFFS:

AFC Wildcard Round:

Oakland Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts - Colts 31 - 17

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals 24-21

NFC Wildcard Round:

Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys - Atlanta Falcons 21-20

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers - Green Bay Packers 34 - 17

AFC Divisional Round:

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts - Colts 28-27

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans - Bengals 27-24

NFC Divisional Round:

Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints - Packers 27-20

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons - Bears 21-17

AFC Conference Championship

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals 31-27

NFC Conference Championship

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears - Bears 24-23

Super Bowl Championship

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Chicago Bears - Bears 37-17

There you have it, the Chicago Bears are my Super Bowl pick. As to how confident I am in the Bears, 100%. How confident I am in the Bengals, less than 1%. I had them getting beat in multiple rounds of the playoffs as I did this (at one point they didn't even make the playoffs).

Baseball Predictions

NL

Cy Young: Johan Santana - Mets
MVP: Ryan Howard - Philadelphia
ROY: Jason Heyword – Atlanta

I went with Heyword over Strausburg because I think he will be surrounded by better talent. Strausburg, even if he starts right away, is good for what, 10-12 wins tops on the Nationals. The Braves will be competitive in the NL East which will keep Heyword in the spotlight for a greater part of the season. I have heard people comparing Heyword to Ken Griffey Jr. so there is plenty of hype around both rookies.

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Mets

NL Pennant: Phillies

Phillies are the best team in the NL and will go to their 3rd straight World Series. Also, because I feel the Phillies are the best team, I think the MVP voters will give the award to Howard over Pujols. The stat heads love the Diamondbacks, because they are such a young team. I think the young team finally puts it all together and beats out the Dodgers for the NL West




















AL

Cy Young: King Felix - Seattle
MVP: A-Rod - Yankees
ROY: Brian Matusz – Baltimore

King Felix has a better team around him and with Lee on the roster will inspire him to pitch better (think Johnson and Schilling In Arizona). The Yankees will have the best record in baseball, and just like the NL, MVP voters will vote for the best player on the best team.

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Mariners
AL Wild Card: Rays

This is a make or break year for the Rays, if this team doesn’t produce, expect to see a Marlins style demolishing of the team. I think the players know this, and will play inspired all year to produce a Wild Card berth for the franchise and the second post season berth in 3 seasons. Maybe I’m biased (OK I am), The White Sox pitching staff can go toe to toe with in rotation in baseball, This will carry them to a division title. I know the Twins will be around (because, well the Twins are always around), but with their new stadium, Target Field, I don’t see how they can keep winning with the same style of baseball that worked in the Metrodome.

AL Pennant: White Sox

White Sox Pitching will carry them to the AL Pennant.


World Series Title: Phillies

So my White Sox bias isn’t that crazy. I think the Phillies have the best team in baseball in 2010 and will bring the World Series title back Philly for the 2nd time in 3 years.


I’m throwing down the gauntlet for all ACSS writers. I want to see which writer can predict most of the following correct. The MVP, CY Young and ROY for each league, the four playoff teams and the pennant winner for each league and finally, the World Series Winner.

Predictions

If you have watched ESPN at all you probably have heard about 20 different superbowl predictions. Mel Kiper says that Reggie Bush is going to have tha game of his life. Mark Schlereth seems to think that the game will be dominated by the Colts defense and Manning will pick apart the Saints.

All of these opinions seem to have some merit, however, this is my 2 cents on the superbowl.

The Colts gave up only 10 sacks all season, which lays out a challenge to New Orleans. However, if you look at the last 2 games the saints have played they have knocked 1 quarterback into retirement and the other into his psuedo-retirement (which may be the norm for Favre now). Even though the Colts O-line is phenomenal I predict that the Saints will get to Manning 2-3 times legally, and probably 1 other time that will cost them 15 yards. Despite getting hit I predict Manning will throw 2 TD's and have only mild trouble with the Saints defense. Tack on a TD on the ground and the Colts offense looks pretty good.

To the other side of the ball, the Colts also have a great defense, however, in my mind it isnt as great as the Saints high powered offense. I believe that Brees will have no trouble at all moving the ball down the feild especially if they decide to spread it out early. The only way I forsee Reggie Bush having the game of his life is if Indianapolis blitzes far to often and Bush is on a short screen route every time. I predict that Brees will throw for 3 TDs and Bush will not score.

After looking at both sides of the ball, I believe that both teams will reach the end zone three times, and that the game will come down to special teams. In the special teams category I have to give the slight advantage to New Orleans. Which makes my final score prediction. 27-24 Saints in either OT or in the closing minutes.

Week 6 Picks

Wow, I was doing AWESOME after the noon games. The 3:15 games really kicked the shit out of me, and Fodor. Anywho, here are my predictions:

Houston @ Cincinnati: Houston 24-20
Detroit @ Green Bay: Packers 31-24
Baltimore @ Minnesota: Baltimore 27-17
Giants @ New Orleans: Saints (upset) 31-28
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh: Steelers 24-6
Carolina @ Tampa Bay: Panthers 24-17
Kansas City @ Washington: Kansas City 20-17
St. Louis @ Jacksonville: Jacksonville 31-20
Philadelphia @ Oakland: Philadelphia 41-17
Arizona @ Seattle: Arizona 30-21
Tennessee @ New England: New England 31-27
Buffalo @ New York Jets: Jets 17-7
Chicago @ Atlanta: BEARS 31-17
Denver @ San Diego: Chargers 38-10 (Upset blow out!)



My Record Last Week: 8-6

Fodor's Record Last Week: 7-7

My Overall Record: 24-20 (.545)

Fodor's Overall Record: 26-17 (.604)

I'm gaining on you Fodor!

Week 5 Predictions

Cleveland @ Buffalo: Buffalo 27-24.
Pittsburgh @ Detroit: Pittsburgh 31-13.
Dallas @ Kansas City: Dallas 41-20.
Minnesota @ St. Louis: Minnesota 21-17.
Oakland @ Giants: Giants 34-10.
Tampa @ Philly: Philly 31-21.
Washington @ Carolina: Carolina 21-17.
Cincinnati @ Baltimore: Baltimore 34-17.
Atlanta @ San Francisco: San Francisco 21-17.
New England @ Denver: New England 24-16.
Houston @ Arizona: Houston 34-24.
Jacksonville @ Seattle: Jacksonville 24-21.
Indianapolis @ Tennessee: Indianapolis 28-17.
New York Jets @ Miami: Miami 20-16.

Last Weeks Record: 9-5

Fodors Record Last Week: 9-4 (Didn't make a prediction on the Redskins Bucs game, if you had one, and are honest about it, I'll count it)

My Overall Record: 16-14

Fodor's Overall Record: 19-10