Fantasy Football 2011: Top 5

So apparently I have a problem. It's apparently an addiction to have completed 10 mock drafts up until this point. But one thing I have noticed in these drafts is the high amount of variability in the first round. Generally, its the same people going 1-5 and then the next 5 are the same people in varying orders however that has not been the case this year. I have seen 6 different people go #1 overall including Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Mike Vick, Jamal Charles, and even Rashard Mendenhall. That being said this is my Top 5 for the first round. Feel free to comment or debate any of these.

1. Adrian Peterson
With a decent quarterback behind him and a bunch of solid receivers AP is set up to do what he does every year.

2. Mike Vick
I know what your thinking. Dan quarterbacks are so deep this year why would you waste your number 2 pick on an injury prone QB. Here's why: Mike Vick is a play maker. He was among the league leaders in fantasy points last year even not playing every game either due to his injury or to Andy Reid. As for being injury prone, think of it this way. Everybody is injury prone. How many hits is AP gonna take this year? Who took Brady a few years ago and expected nothing to happen to him. The fact of the matter is anybody can get hurt at any time so ignore injuries unless the injury is current.

3. Arian Foster
I've got good news and I've got bad news. First the bad news. Every team is now looking for this guy on every play. He had most of his success last year early in the year when nobody was game planning for him. Now for the good news. Matt Schaub isn't getting any worse. With his ability to air it out to Andre Johnson defenses wont be able to cheat up into the box to shut down Foster or they will get burned deep. So they have a choice. Either get burned deep and then have Houston run out the clock on them or let them run initially either way Foster is going to get his touches.

4. Ray Rice
With Willis McGahee out of the picture look for rice to get all his regular touches plus extra goal line carries.

5. Chris Johnson
Tennesee has no other option but to hope that CJ can run the ball effectively.

If I have time I hope to finish out the first three rounds.

Yahoo! Fantasy on the Bears

If you play fantasy football (and hey, who am I kidding, nine out of the ten of us who read this thing do), then you probably are familiar with Yahoo's Juggernaut Index, written by Andy Behrens. If not, you can find all the entries here at Roto Arcade.

Behrens ranks every team in the NFL for the coming season, not by hopes for a good year in the wins column, but by how useful their players will be on your fantasy squad.
The countdown has now reached No. 20, the Chicago Bears. Much of the analysis is based on the new Martz system and how well the Bears' personnel can handle it - one stat I thought was interesting is that in every year with Martz as the OC, his teams have given up a lot of sacks, and thrown a lot of INTs. More details are over at Yahoo.

One Bear who Behrens trashes is Matt Forte:

"Forte was of course a fantasy star in his rookie season, thanks largely to the 379 total touches, but as an actual NFL talent he appears to be just another guy. He still hasn't averaged 4.0 YPC over a full season, and it may not happen this year. He certainly looks like a runner who needs an outstanding O-line and an old school lead-blocking fullback; in Chicago's offense, he'll have neither."

But he does wrap up by noting that, "This was the most difficult JI of all," so maybe there's still hope. Personally I'm looking at drafting at least one of the Bears' WRs, whichever one falls to a convenient position to be my third or fourth option.

I Remember Way Back When...

After Week 8 in the NFL, the 4-3 Bears are just as much of a mystery as they were before the season started. Does beating the Browns 30-6 even count as a full win?

Anyway, I was looking at fantasy football stats and couldn't help but notice this little gem:

Cedric Benson: 720 yards (4th in NFL), 5 TDs (T-7th)
Thomas Jones: 704 yards (5th in NFL), 7 TDs (T-3rd)

Both former Bears RBs are in the Top 10 overall for the season in fantasy football. If you drafted them both, you are either insanely lucky or a genius.

Meanwhile...

Matt Forte: 408 yards (18th), 3 TD (way down there)

Forte, who was going as high as third in some drafts this year, is barely cracking the Top 100 in my league.

And, to rub it in, the guy who we should have drafted, Ray Rice...

Rice: 525 yards (9th), 4 TD, 38 rec, 349yds, TD ... is leading all NFL players in total yards from scrimmage, as well as crushing every other RB in receptions and yardage. Rice went twenty picks after Forte last year.

Jerry Angelo, I hope you are paying attention. Chicago could easily have at least one of these monster running backs in the navy blue and orange right now. Instead we are stuck with Garrett Wolfe, whose NFL ceiling is best expressed as "Homeless Man's Warrick Dunn," except without the toughness, as our backup.

I would love to get into a fantasy league against Angelo - he can pay a premium for Forte, while I get Jones and Rice in the 4th and 8th rounds. Good deal.

Getting off the Writer's Block

Well, it's been a crazy couple of weeks, between barely missing the Time list and posting a monster 215 point week in fantasy (last week). Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ray Rice, Chad Ochocinco... and my HOMEBOY, Thomas Jones!

Now that Shonn Greene is replacing Leon Washington, can't wait for the pundits to say that he's going to take the majority of the carries for the Jets.

TJ the last three weeks - 59 carries, 378 yards, 4 TD. Ball don't lie.

Anyway, I'm sure that Noffke has read this already, but Stewart Mandel has his College Football Mailbag up on CNNSI, and the headliners are the Iowa Hawkeyes! You gotta understand, I'm not exactly an Iowa fan, but I always root for the Big Ten to do well overall, so it's great to see that Strength of Schedule has the Hawks ahead of Florida, Alabama, and Texas in the BCS computer rankings. Mandel has an excellent explanation.


My Big Ten Power Rankings for Week Nine:

1. Iowa - Looking like they've got that magical feeling right now. Get Indiana at home this week with a chance to drive another stake into the evil heart of Vampire Bill Lynch.

2. Penn State - They keep on cruising towards an at-large BCS berth and, also, ruining the bowl season for every bowl-eligible B10 team behind them if they get it. Dominated Michigan last week. Tough road date at Northwestern. This would be a great chance for the 'Cats to play spoiler and give their season a massive boost at the same time (and their bowl-winning prospects!)

3. Ohio State - They get a gimme against New Mexico State (???) this week, after crushing Minnesota. With a pair of losses, they are out of the BCS hunt, but they could look awfully good in the CapitalOne Bowl!

4. Michigan State - Sparty continues their midseason surge despite a narrow loss to Iowa last week. Next three games (@ Minnesota, Western Michigan, @Purdue) are going to decide the season. They need to win all three to quiet the doubters.

5. Wisconsin - Wisconsin makes me want to fall asleep. Let's see, 5-2 (2-2), just had a bye week, get a surging Purdue squad this week... have lost their last two to the cream of the conference. Alamo Bowl, get ready for the BADGERS! I probably won't watch.

6. Northwestern - A spirited, come-from-behind win at home jumps NU back into the bowl game hunt. But can they continue the momentum with #12 Penn State coming to Evanston? They better, because after that comes a road date at Iowa, then the rivalry game at Champaign, before closing out at Wisconsin. At 5-3, NU has got to win two of those games to guarantee themselves a bowl. Big game at Ryan Field this week.

7. Purdue - Here by virtue of their two game winning streak, including the huge upset against Ohio State. Apparently the Boilers don't have a lot of give-up in 'em. Who knew? A .500 finish would make a lot of West Lafayettians very happy this year.
8. Michigan - Freshman quarterbacks. Ouchies. A couple of winnable games coming up at Illinois and then home against Purdue, but this defense is porous and the offense is disjointed. Good teams have an easy time containing their explosiveness. Delaware State? ehhh... not so much.

9. Minnesota - It's one thing to lose to Penn State and Ohio State, both on the road. It's another to lose by a combined 58-7. That's just a two week extended beatdown. Still alive for the postseason, but need to win against Michigan State this weekend to make anyone optimistic. A huge slide for the Golden Gophers.

10. Indiana - Much as I want to put them last, the Hoosiers did demonstrate the things they can do well at Ryan Field last week. Namely, make big plays. Ray Fisher had a TD return, and WR's Tanden Doss and DeMarlo Belcher continued to flash big-play potential. Also, Darius Willis had a 70-yard run to open the game, followed by the obligatory benching and six straight runs into the defensive tackle. Jammie Kirlew also spent a disturbing amount of time in the Northwestern backfield bugging Mike Kafka. Indiana Plus: Good Players!

Indiana Minus: TERRIBLE COACHING!!!! Seriously, Bill Lynch used his last timeout with over seven minutes left in the 4th quarter as Northwestern was roaring back, got stuffed on 4th down from the NU 33 with the game on the line (call a short pass! or a run! not a 20-yard out!), then was forced to try and kick a 59 yard field goal with 0:05 left on the clock and a first year kicker with nowhere close to that kind of range.

11. Illinois - Ron Zook looks like Andrew Klein from Entourage after his wife found out about the cheating. At least ten times a game. This team is awful.

Week 6 Power Rankings: Defensive Domination

1. Merriman's Roid Rage 4-1 (AJ)

Only one loss all year, he leads the way in power rankings. Expect him to fall after this week... when I kick his ass!

2. Bearin' Down 3-2 (Me)

I took down Fodor last week, which is why I move ahead of him. Expect me to be sitting at that number one spot after this week. AJ, I'd be very scared if I were you!

3. The U! 3-2 (Fodor)

Man, has anyone else fallen so fast. My guess, Steve gets his first win this week against Fodor.

4. Forte-Six Defense 0-5 (Steve)

Pathetic.

Monday Night Lights; I Miss Thomas Jones

This has been a great game between the Jets and Dolphins! Four (correction: FIVE) go-ahead touchdowns in the fourth quarter? Are you kidding me?


With Chad Henne and the Wildcat Boys going at full strength, the Fins are suddenly looking like a factor in the AFC East. At 2-3, they are just one game behind division leaders New England and New York. Final score tonight: 31-27 Miami.

::cue T-Pain::

There was some great rushing in this game, most notably by Ronnie Brown (19 carries, 70 yd, TD) and Ricky Williams (11 carries, 68 yd). On the other side, Leon Washington did just enough to beat me in fantasy, posting 57 yards from scrimmage on eleven carries and a reception.

But Thomas Jones, the former Bear and, as you all know, my biggest regret of the Angelo tenure, continues to give it to the doubters who have been on the Leon Washington bandwagon all year. TJ toted it thirteen times for 42 yards and two TD's tonight, grinding to get tough yardage between the tackles.

Fun Fact (thanks to the MNF crew): Over the last four years, the NFL's rushing leader has been LaDanian Tomlinson with around 5,500 yards. Second behind LT?

Yep, you guessed it. Thomas Jones has racked up over 5,200 yards since 2005. He scored fifteen TD's last year. He got two more tonight. The Bears dumped him after the Super Bowl in exchange for, basically, nothing. I just can't get over it.

Chicago will have two running backs active next week. Matt Forte, who has looked like a shadow of his rookie self (sound familiar? Rashaan Salaam? Curtis Enis? Anthony Thomas?), and Mighty Mite Garrett Wolfe. Can anyone really tell me that Jones wouldn't help this team?

Anyway, back to the game.

According to Tirico and Co., Braylon Edwards (5rec, 64 yards, TD, one huge PI call) is just the third skill position player since 1970 to change teams in midseason and then start the very next week. Edwards, all of a sudden, has lost his case of the dropsies!

He's going to be big for the Jets the rest of the season, and is a significant upgrade over Chansi Stuckey. I guess leaving Cleveland for the big city would rejuvenate just about anyone.

I think the key factor in this game, great rushing attacks notwithstanding, was quarterback play. Heralded rookie Mark Sanchez went 12-24 for 172 with a TD and an INT. His QB rating? A decent 87.5.

That's only 42.9 points lower than Chad Henne, the supersub who went a superefficient 20-26 for 241 yard and two TD's. Nine different Dolphins caught passes. Fantasy owners in need of a quarterback, start your engines.

Anyway, it was just an awesome game all around. Back and forth the whole way, with big plays and no sloppiness. We even had a Steve Weatherford (from?) sighting, as the Jets punter took a fake kick 26 yards to keep a crucial drive alive.

Props to Miami for pulling it off and keeping themselves very much alive in the competitive AFC East.

The Ultimate *cough* Rivalry

Separated by a short stretch of highway and three state lines, the Queen Cities of Cleveland and Buffalo glower at each other on the shining shores of Lake Erie. Wait a minute. Should that lake really be shining?

Probably better not to think about it.

Similarly, it would be better not to think about the Bills vs. Browns matchup currently being played out in Buffalo. Jamal Lewis! Trent Edwards! Dick Jauron! Eric Mangini!

Unfortunately for me, I decided to ride the hot hand and start waiver wire wonder Jerome Harrison (seen here making fun of my terrible management skills) in the Mother Bears Fantasy League this week. So far, he's gone for sixteen yards on six carries. The score is 3-3 in the fourth quarter. As far as I can tell, nothing has happened in this game. Derek Anderson has 23 passing yards. Both he and Edwards have a pick, and neither has thrown a TD.

So the running games must be good, right? Uh, wrong. Jerome "I will never start you again" Harrison and Lewis have combined for 88 yards on 26 carries. The two-headed Bills monster of Fred Jackson and Marshawn "Predator" Lynch have 81 yards on 25 carries. Needless to say, nobody has a touchdown.

Do I sound bitter? It's because Ahmad Bradshaw is SITTING ON MY BENCH as he racks up (so far) 32.50 points against the Oakland Raiders. I started Harrison over him? I could be ignoring this awful game? Twelve punts so far, by the way.

It could be worse. I could be in Orchard Park, watching this game right now. Now that would be bad.

Come back, Bears! We miss you.

EDIT: Fifteen punts now. I don't even wanna know how many penalty yards. By the way, Detroit has the ball with three minutes left and down by eight. I got a shot at my Upset Pick Of The Week!

Week 5 Defensive League Power Rankings

I decided to post the power rankings for our defensive league.

1. AJ aka Merriman's Roid Rage (3-1):

Last week he defeated the only undefeated team. He started slow week one, where The U! got the first of victory between the two, but he's been hot since than as he has overtaken The U! for the top spot.

2. Fodor aka The U! (3-1):

Started off 3-0, but lost last week to AJ. Fodor has scored the most points in the league, averaging almost 80 points a week. A very difficult matchup for anyone, and may actually be the best team in the league.

3. Me aka Bearin' Down (2-2):

Hasn't been that impressive this year, as my only two victories have come against Steve. With that being said, I fully expect to win this week jumping to 3-2 as I drop Fodor.

4. Steve aka Forte-Six Defense (0-4):

Could be better than his record shows but he sometimes forgets to remove players that are injured or on Bye weeks. As a result, he has posted a pathetic 0-4 record and, thus far, has been the bitch of the league.

NFL's Defensive POY: First Quarter Report

Here at Armchair Superstar, we are uniquely qualified to give the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year Award.

You see, we have a little fantasy league called Defense Wins Championships, wherein myself, Snuffles, Ryan, and August all start teams of entirely defensive players. Yeah, we're all going to make the playoffs. But this league has made us all experts in great defensive play. Especially me.

So, without further ado, I'd like to present the Armchair Superstar Sean Taylor Memorial First Quarter Defensive Player of the Year Awards!

Best Safety: Darren Sharper, New Orleans. Even at age 33, Sharper is turning in quarter-season for the ages. 5 INT, 5 Passes Defensed, .5 Sack, 2 TD

Best Cornerback: Charles Woodson, Green Bay. Somebody tell me where the NFL's DB's are stashing their fountain of youth. 3 INT, 3 PD, TD

Best LB: Patrick Willis, San Francisco. My top player in fantasy, Willis is making Coach Singletary proud. 29 tackles, 2.5 sack, 2 INT, 2 PD, TD.

Best DE: Jared Allen, Minnesota. What a beast. Wow. 6.5 sack, 3 fumbles forced, safety, 14 tackles.

Honorable Mentions: Denver's Elvis Dumervil, David Harris of the New York Jets.

AAAAAAAND... the First Quarter Defensive POY? Darren Sharper! Please contact us at ACSS Headquarters to claim your prize package.

2009 CFB Season Starts Out Right...

...for Duke haters, anyway. After one snap with Syracuse, the Greg Paulus experiment is already looking ripe for mockery. His center tossed it about three feet over his ugly little head. Hah! He might as well have transferred to Eastern Kentucky. (Who, by the way, almost beat Indiana on Thursday in an ugly, ugly game)

It's too bad I can't stand the sound of Pam Ward's voice, because I would love to watch this game. Also, Big Ten Network down here is showing Purdue instead of Northwestern vs. Sacrificial Lamb Towson. Damn. I think I'll catch the first bit of Ohio State-Navy..... TOUCHDOWN, OHIO STATE! That didn't take long.

Nice move by Pryor, eluding tacklers and making the easy play to the guy (WR Dane Salzenbacher) breaking open through the heart of the Navy defense.

Like Noffke says so well below, I love college football.

Also, today is the Mother Bears LIVE fantasy draft, at the store at 2:30. I'm pretty excited. It's a 14-team PPR league, hoping at least ten (out of the fourteen) owners show up for the draft!


Last note. We need at least one more owner for the Defense-Only League. You can find all of the relevant information HERE. Please get in today or tomorrow, because the online draft is scheduled for Monday at 9:00 EST.

Defense Wins Championships - Coolest Fantasy League Ever

Hello, gentlemen. Yesterday I had an idea, an idea that I was so pleased with that right away I made several overly excited phone calls and did some serious scheming.

That idea? A Defensive Players-Only Fantasy League! Yahoo just added functions that let you not only have individual defensive players, but also play guys by specific position.

So in this league, you start 11 players, just like in a real game. Two any-position defensive guys, three linebackers, a defensive tackle (they're not much for racking up stats), two DE's, a Safety, and two corners. Points are awarded in all defensive statistical categories including passes defensed (1 pt), tackle assists (.2 of a pt), etc. I've been monkeying with the various values on and off all day to find a good mix. It's almost impossible to set a point value that doesn't have linebackers cramming the first couple of rounds, and defensive linemen are undervalued no matter what you do, but by making INTs worth more than Forced Fumbles and Fumbles Recovered, I got a nice mix...

Last year's top scorers:

1) Antoine Winfield 151.8 points
2) OJ Atogwe 151.6
3) DeMarcus Ware 151
4) Patrick Willis 149.9
5) James Harrison 149.8

A couple of Bears show up near the top, too...

9) Charles Tillman 141.4
10) Lance Briggs 141.25

And I have to note Ed Reed, at #14 with 138.9. Justin Tuck was the top D-Lineman, with 116 points.

ANYWAY.

If you want to join this league (and please do, because it will be more fun if it's not just me), the leagueID is 784267 on Yahoo!Fantasy Football and the password is "buddyryan" (no caps). Just follow this link and enter that info to join up. Should be a good time for all.