Sparty Saves Noffke

Going into the last two games of the elite 8, it was looking like I could go 0 for my NCAA predictions this year. My pre-season predictions were looking to go 0-4 and my statistical analysis of how to pick a Final Four was looking to completely miss for only the second time since the field expanded to 64 teams (1986 was the first and only miss). Then Raymond Morgan hit the game winning free throw with 1.8 seconds left and saved Steve’s season. Michigan State returns to the final four, proving once again, that my statistical analysis of the NCAA tournament is correct! Yes I know, two teams from one conference did not make it, and the four school’s that belonged to the two conference’s that had multiple teams left (Big XII and SEC) in the Elite Eight all lost. So if you were betting on them in Vegas, I apologize, but as I said before, past results do not guarantee future success.

Time for a quick review of my pre-season Final Four predictions

Kansas

Kansas was one of the best two teams all year. They ran into a very good Northern Iowa team and couldn’t outlast my nominee for watermelon balls of the year Ali Farokhmanesh. I still stand by this choice.

Michigan State

Saved my season by returning to the final four where they fell to hometown sweetheart Butler

Purdue

Was one of the last 6 teams without a loss and was really starting to play well until Rubbie Hummell blew out his knee. Still had a good tournament showing, but didn’t have the man power to beat eventual champion Duke.

Louisville

Hey, they made the Tournament!

(Almost) The Greatest Shot Ever

The title game of the NCAA Tournament tonight was, no question, a fitting end to what has been an unbelievably good three weeks of college basketball.
I can't remember a better tournament, overall, and that would have still been the case even if Duke had won in a walk. But how classic would it have been if Gordon Heyward had hit his Evan Turner-esque prayer at the buzzer? He certainly got a good look at it.

This was because The Big 'Stache, Butler's Matt Howard, absolutely laid out a Dookie at halfcourt with a wicked pick on Jon Scheyer to get his teammate clear.

Then Heyward nailed the trajectory, hit glass, and BAM - off front rim, no good. Literally two inches less bounce, and you're looking at one of the biggest upsets in tourney history, for a small school playing in their own backyard, with tens of thousands of fans in attendance.

If that shot had gone in, it wouldn't just have been the best shot of the NCAA tourney. Nor, even, of the year in college basketball (Ohio State's Turner gets to hold on to that honor for his prayer against Michigan, unless you think Ali Farokhmanesh's double order of onions was slightly better) -- No, Heyward's shot would have been the greatest in college basketball history.

Maybe in basketball history, period. Who could top it in the NBA? Michael Jordan, maybe, but none of his buzzer beaters were from forty feet out!

Think about it. Butler, a 5 seed, the classic David despite their sterling play, versus the most hated team in basketball. A nailbiter of a game. Heyward didn't even get to catch the ball off an inbounds pass!

No, he had to drive the length of the court through a capable Duke defense and fire away on two dribbles AFTER snagging the rebound off an intentionally missed free throw (no easy feat in itself).

It's honestly too bad he was even in the position to have to throw up a half court shot. On Butler's next-to-last possession, Brian Zoubek's 7'1" frame forced Heyward into a desperate fadeaway. Honestly, I thought he got a better look at his game ender than he did on that shot.

It's a little early to criticize Butler for that play, but I'm going to go ahead and do it anyway. They played such a great game, and coach Brad Stevens handled Duke so well, that it was a HUGE disappointment to see their last play -- to win a national title, no less -- turn into a frantic halfway drive and foiled shot with six seconds still to go.

With Zoubek having four fouls, I can't see how you don't drive straight to the hole and try for the old fashioned three point play.

Then again, hindsight is 20/20.

I'll just say this. That was one of the finest college basketball games I've seen in a long time. When you combine it with other epics such as Xavier-Kansas State, or Northern Iowa-Kansas, or Maryland-Michigan State, I think there is a clear case for the 2010 edition of March Madness as the finest ever.

Even if Duke won.

Go Butler

Damn, ACL injuries are rough.

As if I needed yet another reason to root for Butler tonight...

Dayton wins the last NIT Ever?

ESPN.com's Kurt Snibe provided the picture of the Dayton and UNC NIT commerative jerseys. I think it's a little bit of an exageration. I mean, would you rather be a 14 seed and loose after one weekend or play 5 games, includeding two in MSG? The later doesn't sound so bad.

The question at hand now is, will Dayton be the last NIT champion ever. It appears expansion to 96 teams is going to happen, so what's going to happen to the NIT? The quality of teams will be going down, as well as the possibility that not enough teams will qualify (.500 record or better). I think if they do expand, the NCAA, which owns the NIT, will just get rid of the post season tournament all together. Meaning, that yes Dayton will be the last NIT champ ever. For the schools who don't qualify for the NCAA tournament, don't worry there's always the CBI championship.

Another Weekend of Upsets Coming?

Think about this. Almost every single matchup in the Sweet Sixteen is primed for an upset today and tomorrow. Here's how I'd rank the probability of it actually happening:

1. (5) Butler over (1) Syracuse *game in progress

So far, Butler is managing to dictate the pace of the game. If they can keep forcing turnovers, which they've been great at all year, and maybe make a few threes, this is really Butler's game to lose against a Syracuse squad that may really start missing Arinze Onoaku in an hour or so.

2. (6) Xavier over (2) Kansas State

Jordan Crawford has been one of the best players in the tourney all year, and his teammates are playing great, too. Xavier was arguably underseeded as a six. However, K-State has looked tough and clutch, with quality guard play and guys willing to do the dirty work. Plus, Frank Martin is a psycho. Should be a great game.

3. (11) Washington over (2) West Virginia *game in progress

Washington is one of the hottest teams in the field, as Quincy Pontdexter is rock solid (18 points in each of first two) and the Huskies simply owned a quality New Mexico team to advance. However, Da'Sean Butler doesn't look like he's quite done yet. Still, the Mountaineers lost their starting point guard to injury and backup Joe Mazzulla has a tough assignment in UDub's Isiah Thomas.

4. (9) Northern Iowa over (5) Michigan State

Tom Izzo compared his Spartans to "a M.A.S.H. unit" this week. Kalin Lucas is gone. Chris Allen has been hurt. Delvon Roe, too. How much did the epic battle against Maryland take out of the surviving State players? On the other hand, the UNI fairy tale has to end sometime. Against a parade of major conference opponents, Faroukhmanesh and Co. have got to stumble somewhere, right?

5. (4) Purdue over (1) Duke

Given how much I dislike these two programs, it's hard to for me to evaluate this game fairly. I'll just say, for the first and last time in my life, Go Boilers!

6. (12) Cornell over (1) Kentucky

Like Butler, Cornell is a lower seed that has a shot if it can dictate the pace. Lots of veterans and good shooters mean the Big Red should be able to keep pace with the torrid Wildcats. If it comes down to a late game close one, Cornell has a good shot. If not, Kentucky could win by thirty. Again.

7. (6) Tennessee over (2) Ohio State

This ought to be a great matchup. I don't know that Tennessee has enough on the outside to guard all of Ohio State's gunners. But if the Bucks go cold, it could be a slugfest.

8. (10) St. Mary's over (3) Baylor

Baylor's wealth of bigs should provide an answer to the Gael's Omar Samhan. The only way St. Mary's wins is if they shoot lights out. Baylor is much better than Villanova was, and I just don't see this happening. Which, of course, means it probably will.

How to Pick a Bracket

All right, we’ve all seen the crazy gimmick of how to pick your brackets. My personal favorites are choosing which team has the shortest name. This is particularly useful in years when Duke and UCLA (Yes if I chose longest names, UCLA would be come University of California in Los Angeles, they can be useful either way) are good. I also like the dominant mascot way of picking, mainly for the logic and reasoning of the picks. A Hoosier is probably a farmer, and a razorback is basically a pig, and farmers take care of pigs, so clearly the farmer wins! Funny how you can set up a mascot fight and have the team you want to win come out on top of it right?

But even though we always try to replicate the random logic some people use. We know someone’s cousin Emily will pick based on their favorite color, somehow predict George Mason reaching the Final Four, and then win the pool.

(Speaking of George Mason, I will always claim some credit with them. I picked Michigan State to beat them in the first game. But, I had Michigan State beating exactly every team they beat on their way to the final four. That’s got to count for something right, right?)

Fear no more, armchairsuperstar is here to help!

What is the key to winning the bracket? Getting teams into the Final Four! Regardless of scoring, those teams get you points each and every round they are right and even more points when they have reach the final four.

I actually have done some statistical analysis on the Final Four for ever year since 1985 (The Year it expanded to 64 teams) and have noticed two trends.

1st Trend: 2 teams from 1 conference make it to the final four.

Of the past 25 tournaments 2 teams from 1 conference have made the Final Four 18 times (1985 the Big East had 3 teams that made it). That’s 72% of the time.

Now you might be thinking, ok great, 2 teams from 1 conference. Well how many conferences are there? Agreed it may seem difficult to pick which conference it is going to be. There are only a few conferences that have more then 2 or 3 teams receiving bids and the conferences with only 2 or 3 teams will most likely not be able to have 2 of them making the Final Four So now we are only talking about 5 conferences to choose from. That’s not that bad.

Looking at the potential teams this year; I think the best option of having multiple teams make the final four is the Big East, with one Number 1 Seed, two Number 2 seeds and three Number 3 seeds.

2nd Trend: A team from last years Final Four will return to the Final Four

Of the past 25 tournaments, 16 times a team from the previous years Final Four has made it back to the Final Four (In 1991 and 2007 two teams returned to the Final Four). That’s 64% of the time. Again I know not a super high number.

Think of it this way. If you knew nothing about basketball besides the last years final four; there is a 16% chance you get one right (64% * 25% [1 out of 4 picking the correct team from last year]). That’s blindly picking. What if you watch college basketball and know stuff about teams. Like last year, when North Carolina was a number 1 seed, and was likely to make it again.

Looking at the potential teams this year Villanova and Michigan State (UConn and UNC did not make the bracket) I feel like Villanova has the best chance of getting back. They got the expierenced guard play that is needed to get through the tournament. Michigan State has landed in the toughest region that includes Kanasa, Georgetown and Ohio State.

So what are the odds that both 2 teams from 1 conference and a return team happen in the same year? Well, these odds are a lot lower. Only 10 times in the past 25 years has this occurred. That's 40%. Now that's not a bad percentage but probably not as high as you would like.

Now you might be asking, ok these odds are really not that overwhelming, why should I pick my bracket this way? Well Either 2 teams from 1 conference or a repeat team returning to the final four has occurred 24 of 25 times!!! Only one year has neither trend occurred. That is why you should consider picking your brackets this way.

Here is a year by year breakdown of the two trends.


2 From 1 Con (Y/N) Return Teams (#) Both (Y/N)

2009 Yes 1 Yes
2008 No 1 No
2007 No 2 No
2006 Yes 0 No
2005 Yes 0 No
2004 Yes 0 No
2003 Yes 1 Yes
2002 Yes 1 Yes
2001 Yes 1 Yes
2000 Yes 1 Yes
1999 Yes 0 No
1998 No 1 No
1997 No 1 No
1996 Yes 0 No
1995 No 1 No
1994 Yes 0 No
1993 No 1 No
1992 Yes 1 Yes
1991 Yes 2 Yes
1990 Yes 1 Yes
1989 Yes 1 Yes
1988 Yes 0 No
1987 Yes 0 No
1986 No 0 No
1985 Yes 1 Yes


Now I am not saying that these will guarantee success or even to use them. But just something to think about while your picking your bracket.

I have just one small disclaimer that makes me sound like a Wall-Street analyst. Past performance does not indicate future earnings. So take this information with a grain of salt.

The point of doing the brackets is to have fun. So have fun and enjoy March Madness!

One last side note: Since there is a lot of which conference is better then every other conference trash talk going on nowadays, here’s a breakdown of how many times each conferences have had multiple final four teams.

Big Ten
5
ACC
4
SEC
3
Big XII (Big 8)
3
Big East
3

Purdue Gives Hope for Indiana

Indiana and Purdue had a game that makes this rivalry so much fun. Purdue is clearly the better team, but played a back and forth game with the upstart Hoosiers. I know it was a frustrating loss for the Hoosiers, but hope is just on the other side of the floor.

Matt Painter took over in 2005, he played out Keady's players and then started bringing in his own great recruiting classes. These teams were young and talented but couldn't put it together. Now look at them, they are all upper classmen and making big plays in big moments.

This is going to be the Hoosiers in two years, everyone is good, but not too good to jump to the NBA. This team is going to grow up together and learn from tough losses like this. In two years, I fully expect this IU team to be making a Final Four run just like i expect this year's Purdue team to do the same.

I have talked to my Dad about games like this. It's frustrating to loose them, but we have to remember, they are young and inexperienced. These games are no where near as frustrating as the Marco, DJ or Eric games where we knew our team was better then they were playing.

Don't be down Hoosier fans, hope is on its way, and we can look to our biggest rival for hope.

Triva: NCAA QB's who went 4-0 in Bowl Games

Had the Texas Longhorns defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide, Colt McCoy would have become the 2nd quarterback to go 4-0 in Bowl Games. Since they lost, who is the still the only QB to go 4-0 in Bowl Games. Answer in comments on Wed or Thur.

Myles Brand, Former IU President, Dies at 67

One day after pancreatic cancer claimed the life of Patrick Swayze, NCAA President Myles Brand has passed away from the same disease.

Here at Indiana, Brand is best known as the man responsible for firing the legendary Bobby Knight back in 2000. I guess he's best known for that overall, since ESPN mentions it in their lead.

You can read the ESPN obit here.

As NCAA prez, Brand pushed for a higher academic standard in athletic programs around the country. He took over the job in 2001 after leaving Indiana following the uproar that accompanied the Knight termination. Whether he was right or wrong in firing The General (and, in my book, he was wrong), Brand was a hard worker and a man of high moral standards.