Fanhood For the Fantasy Football Era

I had my two big fantasy drafts today.  Both were for twelve team leagues with nonstandard rules.  The first, consisting of old college friends/acquaintances, features two starting quarterbacks and a funky point setup designed by some insane person (disclaimer: may have been me) a decade ago to equalize scoring amongst positions.  I won't bore you with the details.

The second league is the Mother Bear's Gold League, which is in its' fifth year and causes the most relentless, disgusting displays of shit-talking and excessive gambling I've ever have the pleasure of participating in.  PPR league, one QB, one keeper per year.  

As a Bears fan, it's been a few years since I've pulled anything too homerish with my drafting.  But this year I seem to have a surprising number of guys (6) on both of my teams, and these double-dippers are headlined by Brandon Marshall and the Chicago Bears D/ST (Please, Devin, give me one more epic year).  Marshall was a high pick for me in both leagues.  That's a lot of stock in Da Bears.

This got me to thinking about how our fantasy teams affect which real life NFL teams we watch and root for, which led me to what I guess is my central thesis here:  It's good to draft dudes from teams that a) don't suck and b) are at least entertaining.  It's even better if one of those teams is your team.

What I'm saying is, nobody JUST roots for the home team anymore, at least not if you play fantasy football.  You root for a lot of different teams.  Well, at least their offenses.  And that, my friends, is okay.

For example, I dig the Saints and the Seahawks in addition to the Bears.  This is, in part, due to the major contributions Drew Brees and Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham and the 'Hawks D have made to my pretend-football enjoyment over the last few years.  Will I cheer for them to beat the Bears in the playoffs or in a game that matters?  HELL no.  But I will root for them, because they're great players to watch AND they might just make me some money.

Here's a breakdown of the guys I got by team, and therefore my squads of interest for the year.  Double dippers count double.

Chicago Bears 4 (Brandon Marshall x2, Bears D/ST x2)
New England Patriots 4 (Stevan Ridley, Zach Sudfeld, Shane Vereen, Kenbrell Thomkins)
New Orleans Saints 3 (Drew Brees, Mark Ingram x2)
Denver Broncos 3 (Eric Decker x2, Knowshon Moreno)
Detroit Lions 2 (Joique Bell x2)
St. Louis Rams 2 (Daryl Richardson, Greg Zuerlein)
Oakland Raiders 3 (Terrelle Pryor x2, Sebastian Janikowski)
Buccaneers, Falcons, Bengals, Cowboys, Eagles, Cardinals, Panthers, Chiefs, Packers, Giants, Redskins 1 each.  I will be caring about the Falcons, Panthers, and Chiefs more because they feature high picks who are key to my success - Roddy White, Cam Newton, and Jamaal Charles.

So my teams of interest this year are the Bears, Pats, Saints, and Broncos.  If Pryor ends up making a ton of noise, the Raiders get in there too.  Cam Newton and Jamaal Charles put their teams on my must-watch list all by themselves.

 So how'd I do?  Well, the Bears are in a transition year.  Best case, they pull a Pagano minus the leukemia and get into the playoffs.  And they're my guys, damn it, so I was going to be watching anyway.  Best to have a vested interest.

The Pats are anybody's guess after a nutty offseason, but it would have been hard for me to ride Brady any more without actually drafting the guy.  The Saints, well, I wish I had somebody other than Ingram.  I spent the weeks leading up to Draft Day hyping myself up on his backfield mates, especially the under-respected Pierre Thomas (60+ receptions last year?  In PPR?  I'll take it), and ended up doubling down on the guy I like least.  Still, I love Brees and that offense overall.

I'm happy with Decker in both leagues.  He blew me away in college at Minnesota and he's become an excellent pro.  There are a lot of mouths to feed in Denver but in my mind he's an elite talent.  I'm expecting a very good season from him and look forward to an excuse to care about Peyton Manning's golden years.  He can't keep going forever, right?  Right?

The Raiders are a total crapshoot.  We'll see about that one, but Pryor cost me basically nothing and isn't a starter for me anyway.  Cam Newton is hugely important to my Mabears league, and it's my first year with him, so that's exciting.  Jamaal Charles just better stay healthy and I'm very confident in him.  Roddy White, likewise.

The Bears, Brady, Brees, and Manning.  I'm happy with watching those guys every Sunday. (I also nabbed James Jones so I can also get just a tiny taste of hot, freaky Aaron Rodgers action - not that I'll admit to that in public.)

Now just give Brandon Marshall the damn ball and I may just have myself a fun little season, both as a "normal" fan and a compulsive-gambling fantasy fiend.

Potential Sleepers/Busts in Fantasy Football for 2013

I've been doing a lot of mock drafts lately and I figured I would write about how they have gone.  Below you will see some guys who have ended up on my fantasy team most of the time, and guys who have never (or very rarely) ended up on my team.  Obviously, the guys who always seem to end up on my team will be my sleepers (guys who I believe will perform better than their current ADP and I would draft higher), and the guys who I never or almost never take will be my potential busts (guys who I do not believe will perform at the level they are being drafted).

I'll end up writing more about guys that I never end up with than guys I end up with.  This doesn't mean I hate everyone except for a few select guys.  I just want to get the word out that there is risk involved with players, even players that are highly valued in the eyes of some.  Just to be clear, I'm not going to write about obvious guys who never end up on my team, like Mark Sanchez, Blaine Gabbert, and Aaron Hernandez, but guys who I feel are being over-drafted.  You'll see.

Guys who always seem to end up on my team:
Russell Wilson - QB - Seattle: This is one guy that has an ADP that really surprises me.  I mean, he was the second best fantasy QB down the stretch last year after Seattle switched to the read option.  He's going in the 6th or 7th round in most drafts, even though he is the quarterback for a very talented offense.  Yes, this offense is more of a balanced attack with a good run game, but people have been drafting Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick much earlier than Wilson.  Wilson is also going after Robert Griffin III, which is something that really surprises me.  RGIII doesn't look the same this year during pre-game workouts and practice, and likely won't provide the same value he did as a runner last year.  If I'm choosing between these two guys in my draft, I'm taking Wilson, who is the safer pick.  I like to minimize risk early, and I think taking a guy like Wilson does that.  He is currently going in the 6th round, but I would take him in the late 4th or early 5th.

Matt Forte - RB - Chicago: I think this is a year where you need to pick a stud RB early, and in my opinion, the first 12 picks of the draft should be running backs.  I have Forte 11th in my rankings right now, meaning you should be grabbing him in the first round (or second if you have a ten team league).  The Bears' new offense will feature Forte, and while the offensive line hasn't completely been fixed, I still think Forte will provide very good production every week.  Look for Forte to put up big numbers this year, especially catching the football.  Forte is currently going in the middle to end of the second round, but I'm grabbing him in the late first or early second if I can.

Wes Welker - WR - Denver: A lot of people are obviously afraid that Welker will not work well in the new offense in Denver, that he won't get as many looks as he did in New England, and that there are too many other weapons on the Broncos.  I agree that these are all possibilities, but it's not a risky pick at all.  I have seen Welker fall to the fourth round in many drafts, and even as far as the fifth round in a couple.  Last year, Peyton Manning completed over 70% of his passes to the slot receiver, and Welker's most effective position is in the slot.  Remember, Reggie Wayne used to line up in the slot in Indianapolis, as did Dallas Clark.  Manning has always looked to his slot receivers quite frequently, and right now, there is not better slot receiver than Wes Welker.  I think he will still get around 100 catches and 1,200 yards.  The only question mark is the TDs, but scores are very hard to predict.  He'll still probably score at least 5 TDs, and if you can grab him in the late 3rd or early 4th round, it's a safe pick.

Reggie Wayne - WR - Indianapolis: Wayne fell quite far in drafts last year, and those that grabbed the veteran receiver looked like geniuses.  He's not falling as far this year, as he's being taken by the 5th round, but I still think he is a very safe pick as a #2 WR.  He and Andrew Luck have developed a very good chemistry and will still draw the most looks in an offense that throws a ton.  Look for him to put up 80 catches for 1,100 yards and 7+ scores this year.  He can be drafted as a WR #2 or 3 with WR #1 upside.  I think the most attractive thing about him, though, is that his floor is so high, like Welker's.  I would take Wayne in the 4th round.

Zach Sudfeld - TE - New England: Let's face it, the Patriots offense is going to look very different this year, but I think one thing will remain the same.  Tom Brady still loves his tight ends (not an attempt at humor).  The guy known as "Baby Gronk" has been impressive so far in practice and in pre-season action, and if there is any tight end that can put up Gronk-like numbers, it's probably someone who is built like Gronk.  I'm not taking a tight end until the end of the draft, which is good because Sudfeld has gone undrafted in many drafts.  With the possibility of Gronk missing the Pats' first six games, I don't mind grabbing "Baby Gronk" in the 12th or 13th round.

Other sleepers (based on current ADP): Steve Smith (WR - Carolina), Hakeem Nicks (WR - New York Giants), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB - Indianapolis), DeAngelo Williams (RB - Carolina), Miles Austin (WR - Dallas), Emmanuel Sanders (WR - Pittsburgh), Jordan Cameron (TE - Cleveland), LaMichael James (RB - San Francisco), Jordy Nelson (WR - Green Bay)

Guys who never end up on my team (or almost never):
Peyton Manning - QB - Denver: Now before you jump all over me by saying "Hey, how can Peyton Manning suck if you think Welker is going to be good?"  Let me clarify that.  I don't think Manning is going to suck.  I just think he's being drafted too high, as he is coming off one of the best years of his career.  He's currently going in the middle of the second round in many drafts, and I just think that with so much depth at the QB position this year, you can afford to pass on a QB that early in the draft.  I probably wouldn't even take him in the beginning of the 3rd round, unless someone paid me to take him.  I believe the only guys who you can make a case for going in the mid to late second round are Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Peyton Manning is neither of them  End of story.  I want to wait on QB, but I still like Manning, so grab him in the late 3rd or early 4th if he's still there.

David Wilson - RB - New York Giants: This goes on my "almost never" list, as I grabbed him in one mock before I had the chance to watch him play.  He's currently going in the late 3rd, early 4th round, and I think that's too high for him.  I see the running back situation in New York as more of a time-share then I would like for a third round pick.  I don't think it will be a true split carry backfield, but with Andre Brown as the likely third round and goal line back, I think Wilson is just too risky for me that early.  I'd still take him in the 5th round, as he is an explosive runner.

Eddie Lacy - RB - Green Bay: This is another "almost never", although I haven't taken him as a starting running back in any of my drafts.  Don't get me wrong, Lacy is a tremendous talent, and will eventually be the starter in Green Bay.  But he isn't now, and the Packers still have one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  Add that to the fact that the Packers like to throw a ton (as they should), and you have a clear bust.  Lacy is currently going as early as round 5 in some drafts, and I just think people are paying for his production in college.  He could put up double digit scores this year if he takes the starting gig early enough, but I don't see him getting the touches necessary to be a good starting fantasy RB.  I'd grab him as my 4th or 5th running back, but no earlier.  I want to grab as many guys who currently have starting jobs before I take a gamble on non-starters. EDIT: Of course, DeJuan Harris goes on the IR on the 27th and Lacy is the likely pick for the starting job.  Move him up to a 3rd or 4th running back, but no higher.  I still don't trust that O-line.

AJ Green - WR - Cincinnati: AJ Green is a tremendous receiver who has excelled ever since the first time he stepped on the field in the NFL.  He is still Andy Dalton's favorite target and corners still can't seem to figure him out.  Oh wait, I'm supposed to be writing bad things about him.  Green is currently going in the beginning of the second round.  That's just too early for me.  I think the Bengals have added more weapons on offense, especially with the addition of Giovanni Bernard, the rookie running back who is an explosive runner.  Green will still likely put up big numbers and is a solid WR #1, but I want to wait until the third round to grab a receiver not named Calvin Johnson.

Mike Wallace - WR - Miami: 1,257, 1,193, 836.  Those are Wallace's numbers over the past 3 seasons.  He's headed in the wrong direction, and not just in receiving yards.  I understand he wanted to get paid (and to take his talents to South Beach), but Ryan Tannehill is a huge downgrade from Big Ben.  He is the #1 receiver in Miami, but Brian Hartline is a decent second option for the second year QB.  Wallace is a very streaky player and could put up big numbers a couple of weeks, but he doesn't have the consistency I'd like to see out of a fourth or fifth round pick.  I'd still take him in the 6th or 7th round as my 3rd WR, but definitely not as my second.

Kyle Rudolph - TE - Minnesota: Rudolph is a physical beast who should be featured in Minnesota's offense, but he isn't.  This is because the Vikings have Christian Ponder as a QB.  Ponder isn't a bad QB, but he's more of a game-manager who relies more upon throwing to one receiver rather than looking at all of his receivers on a given play.  While Rudolph has the potential to catch ten touchdown passes, he also has the potential to not catch any passes.  In the 7th or 8th round, I would much rather grab a potential breakout running back or wide receiver than a feast or famine tight end like Rudolph.  I'm not touching this guy with a ten foot pole this year.

Other potential busts (based on current ADP): Jimmy Graham (TE - New Orleans), Darren Sproles (RB - New Orleans), Vernon Davis (TE - San Francisco), Ryan Mathews (RB - San Diego), Le'Veon Bell (RB - Pittsburgh), Anquan Boldin (WR - San Francisco), Greg Jennings (WR - Minnesota), Joe Flacco (QB - Baltimore)

Is the NFLPA's refusal to allow HGH Blood Tests Hypocritical?

As everyone knows, recently, Ryan Braun was suspended for using performance enhancing substances. This has spawned a slew of debates as to HGH and the implications for baseball. However, Football, for the most part, is completely ignored in this debate. Yet, the players are getting bigger and faster than ever. People are saying that this is the result of refined exercise programs, better food, etc. Well, I say:

Bullshit.

Just as we made excuse after excuse for MLB players getting bigger and being able to crank more balls out of the park, we too are making excuses for the NFL. How can we ignore that NFL players have dramatically increased in weight from just 40 years ago. In 1970 the average weight of an offensive lineman was 260 pounds. Today, the average weight of an offensive lineman is just around 315 pounds. That's an increase of 55 pounds.

Now, don't get me wrong, some of this weight gain can be attributed to targeted diets, better weight training, supplements, etc. However, I don't think it's a long shot to presume that some of it has to do with HGH. Just as baseball is tackling the problem, the NFL is trying to as well. Yet, the NFL still cannot do HGH test. Why?

The NFLPA does not want to allow it. Likely, they fear that it will expose players in the NFL, and thus, they wouldn't be adequately representing them. But wait? Isn't this the same NFLPA that argues that the NFL shouldn't play an 18 game schedule for player safety reasons? Aren't they the same NFLPA that said the Owners were hypocritical stating they would like more player safety while advocating for more games?

So, how can the NFLPA now argue that there shouldn't be mandatory HGH blood tests for EVERY player? Isn't this a huge issue for player safety? If using HGH increases body mass and strength, and maybe even performance in other areas such as speed, how can the NFLPA now sit there and say that HGH blood testing shouldn't be mandatory? Isn't it logical that increased player size, speed, and strength = more injuries? As far as I know, HGH doesn't increase the amount of padding between your brain and the player hitting you. Nor does HGH increase the density of your bones, joints, or other ligaments.

So, I guess my question to the NFLPA is simple:

When are you going to stop being so damn hypocritical and start advocating for mandatory HGH testing?

Bringing Back Monday Trivia

It's been awhile, but why not bring the Trivia back.

Name the 4 years Indiana has had 2 players drafted in the first round of the NBA draft

Answers will be in the comments later. 

NBA Playoff Storylines - Youth is Served

I am sick and tired of talking about Derrick Rose.

Instead, let's talk about my favorite trend from this year's playoffs - the remarkable number of first and second year players getting extended run and making an impact for their teams in April and May.

Jimmy Butler:  When the Bulls took Butler at the end of Round One last year, I basically shrugged.  He had one good year with Marquette and that was it.  I think I wanted Shelvin Mack from Butler instead.  Shows what I know.

Gar Forman/Pax, I apologize.  You guys were right and I was wrong.  Butler has been a rock for the Bulls in this insane year, especially in the playoffs.  Check out these numbers:

2011: 8.5mpg, 2.6ppg, played FOUR MINUTES in the playoffs.
2012: 26mpg, 8.6ppg.  He more than tripled every one of his stats from the past year.

Get this... In the playoffs so far, Jimmy is averaging almost 40 minutes a game, his scoring is up to 12.9ppg, not to mention he guards freakin' LeBron James every game.  At least three times, he has played every single second of a Bulls playoff game.  That's incredible.  Is he the two-guard of the future, or Luol Deng's successor at small forward?  Either way, he's gained a ton of cred in these two playoff series.

There's a couple of other guys from the 2011 draft that have also emerged this year and in the playoffs.

Chandler Parsons had a great regular season.  Then he went and put a huge exclamation point on it in a MONSTER 27-10-8 near-triple-double against Oklahoma City as the Rockets fought to stave off elimination in Round One. He was the 38th pick in 2011, and is now looking like the steal of that draft. He's also got crazy hops for a white dude, as Serge Ibaka learned.

Norris Cole also waited a while to get his name called by the Heat with the 28th pick, and he was huge in beating the Bulls in Game Three.  Let the record show he also has a stupid flat-top.

A couple 2011 lottery players have also continued their breakout seasons in the badass Spurs-Warriors series.  Klay Thompson (11th pick), known in college for a killer stroke and a fondness for marijuana, has proven why those two attributes translate well to the NBA, pairing with Steph Curry in one of the best three-point shooting tandems I've ever seen.  Thompson is shooting 43% from outside the arc and averaging 17.6 points a game in the playoffs.

Curry is only 25, so he's not exactly a senior citizen himself.  More on the Warriors in a bit.

Kawhi Leonard looks like the future centerpiece for the Spurs as they transition out of the Duncan/Ginobli/Parker era.  Though the way those guys are playing, that transition could still be ten years off.

A few other 2011 players making names for themselves: Reggie Jackson, OKC; Kenneth Faried, DEN;  Iman Shumpert, NYK.

On to the rookies, and if you know me you know who I'm shouting out from the Class of 2012...

Draymond Green, COME ON DOWN!  He's a tweener, they said.  He can't guard the two or the three, they said.  Golden State got Day Day in the second round with the 35th pick, after getting Harrison Barnes at #7.  Yeah, I'd say that worked out all right for the Warriors.  I'm really starting to like this team.

While the more highly touted guys (Lillard, The Unibrow, MKG) are sitting on a beach somewhere watching Jalen, Simmons, and Wilbon talk, Barnes and Green are earning themselves some serious paydays.

Draymond went from playing 13mpg in the regular season to averaging over 20 in the playoffs.  His numbers don't jump out at you (scoring average up from 2.9 to 7.2, rebounding up 50%, assists more than doubled), but coach Mark Jackson has him on the floor in crunch time, has him guarding Tony Parker and a host of other guys and taking big shots.  Just like in college, Green is clutch.  His shooting average isn't good, but he's doing all the little things a glue player should.

Barnes, who struggled as the go-to guy at North Carolina, has finally found his niche as a dangerous third option.  He's playing starter's minutes and averaging almost 15ppg, up from 9.2 during the season.  This Warriors team is a blast to watch, and its youth has got to have fans excited in the Bay Area.  Oh, and backup center Festus Ezeli?  Also a rookie.

Other rookies:  Marquis Teague hasn't been terrible for the Bulls, which is certainly an improvement for him.  Can we count Pablo Prigioni, even though he was a free agent and 35?  Sure, why not?  He's played decently for the Knicks.

Anyway, it's always great to see a rising generation of young players come into the league (and Prigioni).  The 2011 draft in particular is looking like it could have been a treasure trove, while the Warriors front office should be patting itself on the back for both of the last two years.

I'm sure I missed somebody, so please feel free to add thoughts in the comments section.

GO BULLS.

Poor Umpiring

After watching Angel Hernandez make that terrible call last night, he officially jumped to my most disliked ump. He must be under the impression that the fans pay to come see him with the rediculous calls that he makes and how quick he is to run people, so with that I am starting a pole. Outside of Angel Hernandez who is the worst ump?

I am casting my vote for CB Bucknor.

While the GIF is amusing, I absolutely cannot stand how CB will randomly call an absurdly wide strike zone whenever it is convenient for him to do his over the top punchout.

That being said I am very interested to see who else you think should make this list.

Titus Young Arrested Twice in One Day

I really don't have much to say here, but thought I should pass along this article from the Detroit News. Getting arrested twice in one day is really really impressive.

By the way, this is the guy who is on the cover of the 2013 Detroit Lions Calendar