Friday, October 1, 2010

Welcome to the Weekly Picks section. Last week I did alright



Bet: Oklahoma @ Cincinnati Over 52 points
Final: Oklahoma 31 Cincinnati 29
Total: 60 Points

Bet: Arkansas +7.5 vs Alabama
Final: Arkansas 20 Alabama 24
Line Adjusted Final (LAF): Arkansas 27.5 Alabama 24

Bet: Stanford -5 @ Notre Dame
Final: Stanford 37 Notre Dame 14
LAF: Stanford 32 Notre Dame 14


Bet: Tennessee +3 @ New York Giants
Final: Tennessee 29 New York Giants 10
LAF: Tennessee 32 New York Giants 10

Bet: Atlanta +4 @ New Orleans
Final: Atlanta 27 Saints 24
LAF: Atlanta 31 Saints 24



Bet: TCU -18 @ SMU
Final: TCU 41 SMU24
LAF: TCU 23 SMU 24

Bet: Eastern Michigan +44 @ Ohio State
Final: Eastern Michigan 20 Ohio State 73
LAF: Eastern Michigan 64 Ohio State 73

Record 5-2. The lesson, like I said before, stay away from huge lines. On to this week’s bets

A few notes about lines in general.

1. Lines are NOT what Vegas thinks is going to happen. The lines are what Vegas thinks will convince the public to bet on the game.
2. Vegas knows big name teams (think Notre Dame, Southern Cal, Yankees, Cowboys, Red Sox) will have more money bet on them because Joe Fan hears about these teams all the time and will adjust their lines accordingly.
3. Vegas is close to Los Angeles and has a lot of visitors from there. They know LA fans will bet on their teams and will adjust their lines accordingly.

Over/Under –A wager in which Vegas will predict a number for a statistic in a given game (usually the combined score of the two teams), and bettors wager that the actual number in the game will be either higher or lower than that number.

Money Line – Bet on one team with no line. Payouts are changed to keep betting equal.


-140: A bet of $140 is place in order to win $100
+140: A bet of $100 wins $140

A quick note, I will pick more college games because I think there is more potential to win money compared to NFL where Vegas only has to forecast 16 games and teams are very close talent wise. Normally I don’t like picking road teams, but I have a bunch this week.

Like last week, there was no trip to Vegas so no bets were actually placed.


Michigan @ Indiana Over 65 Points.

I know that is a very high line, but I still think the game will go higher. I posted this earlier in the week, but here is how ESPN’s Big Ten Blog starts off the preview of the game.

Fact No. 1: Michigan brings the nation's leading rusher and the nation's No. 2 rush offense to Bloomington to face an Indiana defense ranked 92nd nationally against the run.

Fact. No. 2: The Hoosiers counter with the nation's No. 11 pass offense against a Michigan team ranked 105th nationally in pass defense.

Good enough for me.

Northwestern -5.5 @ Minnesota

Northwestern is undefeated right? And Minnesota just lost at home to Northern Illinois? Yes to both. This line should be way higher, I see Northwestern’s offense putting it on cruise control for most of the second half.

Texas Tech -7 @ Iowa State

Texas Tech played well against Texas (maybe not as impressive now) and I see their defense completely shutting down Iowa State. I think Tech wins easily.

Iowa -7 Vs Penn State

Iowa has had Penn State’s number the past couple of years. A young QB heading into Kinnick for a night game on Home Coming weekend? Not a good combination, the fans will be loud and ready from a day of tailgating.


Baltimore +2 @ Pittsburgh

I am not a firm believer in Baltimore this year, but without Big Ben, they should beat the Steelers, regardless how good the D has been playing.

Chicago +3.5 @ New York Giants

I know this game has trap game written all over it for the Bears. Giants are in disarray and have to win. Bears are coming off a short week after an emotional win against their biggest rival for first place in the division. Yet, I’m still picking the Bears because I think they are better than the Giants and they are getting points. Actually you know what, I’m betting the money line on this.

Chicago +175 @ New York Giants

1 comment:

  1. This week's bets seem a lot riskier than last weeks! I'm starting to think that if we don't see 70+ points in IU vs. UM people are going to be very disappointed...

    Also, you're right on this being a must win for the Giants. I'm curious to see Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Lance Briggs and Urlacher, personally, I think that's the key matchup of the game.