Alright, folks. Draft season is over. I had my final draft last night, as my money league's drafts took place. This league is filled with very intelligent managers who have been playing Fantasy Football for years. It is the league that gives me the most trouble every year, even if I have a healthy team. I won this league in 2011, mainly by having an incredible draft. I ended up landing Arian Foster (along with Ben Tate as a handcuff), Drew Brees (for his record-breaking 5,476 yard, 46 TD season), Jordy Nelson (15 touchdowns in the 9th round? Yes, please.), Julio Jones (took a gamble on a rookie in a good offense), and Marques Colston (Drew Brees' favorite target at WR).
Last year wasn't bad. I still made the playoffs, but I knew going in I had no chance, due to injuries. I did have Tom Brady, Stevan Ridley, and CJ Spiller, but losing Percy Harvin and Rob Gronkowski due to injury pretty much eliminated my team (which finished 2nd in the league in scoring) from contending for a title.
The strategy I have used is a simple one. I want to put myself in as good of a position as possible to win each week. The question I ask myself is: What's most likely to happen? Could David Wilson become a breakout stud with the lead role in New York? Sure. But I'd rather bet on Chris Johnson or MJD. I'm more likely to choose guys in explosive offenses, and to choose proven players early rather than take risks on rookies. I also want yards and targets over touchdowns. Touchdowns are tough to predict. Just ask Calvin Johnson owners last season.
I selected 7th out of 12 in this league. I think the draft went well, but I ended up betting big on a couple of teams. You'll see.
Round 1 - Ray Rice (RB - BAL) - You all know by now I'm a big believer in this guy. Even though he plays in a tough division, he's the focal point of that offense and I think he'll be more involved in the pass game this season. Think of him as a better version of Matt Forte.
Round 2 - Steven Jackson (RB - ATL) - I had three guys on my board when this pick rolled around, the other two being Stevan Ridley and AJ Green. I immediately eliminated AJ Green when the two running backs survived and made it to the 18th pick. I had Jackson at 12th in my rankings, and Ridley at 14th. Not much separated them in my mind, but Ridley doesn't play on third down, and Belichick has been known to lose faith in his running backs very quickly.
Round 3 - Randall Cobb (WR - GB) - Another tough pick here, but I think the departure of Greg Jennings helps Cobb the most. If the Packers continue to use him like they did last season, in a Percy Harvin type role, Cobb should easily catch 100 passes. Targets are what I'm interested in early, and I'll take the guy that should be Aaron Rodgers' top target.
Round 4 - Tom Brady (QB - NE) - I've waited on QB in most of my drafts, mainly because they have gone fast and furious. They started to in this draft, with Rodgers, Brees, and Manning (DEN), going in the first two rounds. I felt comfortable taking Brady here because he is an elite performer in an offense that averages 70 plays per game. He can probably throw 40 passes per game and rarely throws interceptions. His decision making is among the best all time, and it will minimize my week-to-week risk.
Round 5 - Jordy Nelson (WR - GB) - You don't have to scroll back up to the third round. Yes, I did take two Green Bay receivers. I honestly had Nelson in my top 20 receivers in my rankings, so I'm fine getting him as a second receiver. Yes, there is risk having two guys from the same team in my starting lineup, but there are times last year that I wish I would have drafted Welker along with Gronk. I have no problem betting big on Aaron Rodgers having a great year throwing the football, and having his top 2 targets is a good thing in my mind.
Round 6 - T.Y. Hilton (WR - IND) - I'm all in on him this year. He is a guy with explosive talent, and the Colts need someone to step up outside of Reggie Wayne. I still see this as more of a passing team, and I think Andrew Luck takes a step forward this season. Hilton also has the upside of being a return man, so I see him as a guy comparable to Antonio Brown. I got Hilton a round later than Brown went, and I think Hilton ends up producing numbers close to Reggie Wayne level this year.
Round 7 - Lance Moore (WR - NO) - Marques Colston has had injury concerns, and Moore has always been a solid fantasy option, even if he's not always a reliable fantasy starter. Still, I'll take a guy who will probably put up 1,000 yards and 6 scores. Hey, he did it last year.
Round 8 - Kenbrell Thompkins (WR - NE) - I made this pick because I really wanted a guy who has been a favorite of Brady's during the pre-season. If Thompkins evolves into the deep threat that Randy Moss was (or at least close) or that Brandon Lloyd was supposed to be, it will end up being a good pick. I don't mind taking risks this late, and as a 5th WR, I'm looking for upside instead of safeness.
Round 9 - Chris Givens (WR - STL) - Another guy who is a great deep ball threat, and as my sixth receiver, I'm fine taking a chance that Sam Bradford takes a step forward this season. I think the Rams end up throwing a lot this year, especially without Steven Jackson, so I think Givens has breakout potential.
Round 10 - Chris Ivory (RB - NYJ) - Bilal Powell is currently the #1 RB on the team's official depth chart, but I think Ivory takes over the job early. Like by week 2. Ivory is the better back, and I think the Jets management sees that in week 1.
Round 11 - Vick Ballard (RB - IND) - Ballard is currently first on the team's official depth chart, but I think Bradhsaw is the better back. However, Bradshaw was not available here, as he went 5 rounds earlier. I'm fine taking a guy who could rack up some big yards in week 1 against Oakland, and possibly look into trading him. Or, I could hold on to him in case Bradshaw's injury problems re-surface.
Round 12 - Zach Sudfeld (TE - NE) - I'm either going to look really smart or really dumb this year. I'm willing to bet on Tom Brady throwing to his tight ends, though.
Round 13 - Baltimore (D/ST - BAL) - Give me a defense that will put pressure on the QB and plays in a division without a high-scoring threat. The Ravens have more speed on defense this year, and even with the leadership losses, I still think they are very talented.
Round 14 - Jacquizz Rodgers (RB - ATL) - Simply a handcuff for S-Jax.
Round 15 - Greg Zuerlein (K - STL) - Legatron! Hopefully he can hit a few more 50 yard field goals this year.
So, I ended up betting big on the Patriots and Packers, especially with their passing games. I think I will be able to compete on a weekly basis, and that's really all that matters.
Good luck to all of you in your Fantasy Football league(s) this year!
Thursday, September 5, 2013
2013 NFL Predictions
I figured I would lay it all out there this year. Here are my 2013 NFL Predictions.
AFC East
1. Patriots
2. Dolphins
3. Bills (No one, I mean no one, circles the wagons like they do)
4. Jets
AFC South
1. Texans
2. Colts
3. Titans
4. Jaguars
AFC North
1. Bengals
2. Ravens (WC)
3. Browns
4. Steelers
AFC West
1. Broncos
2. Chiefs (WC)
3. Chargers
4. Raiders (Please say this like Chris Berman when you read it)
NFC East
1. Cowboys (How 'bout them Cowboys?)
2. Eagles
3. Redskins
4. Giants
Note: I think this is an extremely tight division race, and the top 3 teams may all be in it going into week 17.
NFC South
1. Falcons
2. Saints (WC)
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers
NFC North
1. Packers
2. Bears
3. Lions
4. Vikings
NFC West
1. 49ers ("Who's got it better than us?")
2. Seahawks (WC)
3. Rams
4. Cardinals
AFC Wild Card Round
(6) Ravens over (3) Patriots
(4) Bengals over (5) Chiefs
NFC Wild Card Round
(3) Packers over (6) Saints
(5) Seahawks over (4) Cowboys
AFC Divisional Round
(1) Texans over (6) Ravens
(2) Broncos over (4) Bengals
NFC Divisional Round
(5) Seahawks over (1) Falcons
(2) 49ers over (3) Packers
AFC Championship
(2) Broncos over (1) Texans
NFC Championship
(5) Seahawks over (2) 49ers
Super Bowl
Seahawks over Broncos (Super Bowl MVP: Percy Harvin)
NFL MVP: Drew Brees
NFL COY: Andy Reid
AFC OPOY: Tom Brady
NFC OPOY: Drew Brees
AFC DPOY: JJ Watt
NFC DPOY: Luke Kuechly
AFC OROY: Giovani Bernard
NFC OROY: Eddie Lacy
AFC DROY: Dee Milliner
NFC DROY: Ezekiel Ansah
AFC East
1. Patriots
2. Dolphins
3. Bills (No one, I mean no one, circles the wagons like they do)
4. Jets
AFC South
1. Texans
2. Colts
3. Titans
4. Jaguars
AFC North
1. Bengals
2. Ravens (WC)
3. Browns
4. Steelers
AFC West
1. Broncos
2. Chiefs (WC)
3. Chargers
4. Raiders (Please say this like Chris Berman when you read it)
NFC East
1. Cowboys (How 'bout them Cowboys?)
2. Eagles
3. Redskins
4. Giants
Note: I think this is an extremely tight division race, and the top 3 teams may all be in it going into week 17.
NFC South
1. Falcons
2. Saints (WC)
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers
NFC North
1. Packers
2. Bears
3. Lions
4. Vikings
NFC West
1. 49ers ("Who's got it better than us?")
2. Seahawks (WC)
3. Rams
4. Cardinals
AFC Wild Card Round
(6) Ravens over (3) Patriots
(4) Bengals over (5) Chiefs
NFC Wild Card Round
(3) Packers over (6) Saints
(5) Seahawks over (4) Cowboys
AFC Divisional Round
(1) Texans over (6) Ravens
(2) Broncos over (4) Bengals
NFC Divisional Round
(5) Seahawks over (1) Falcons
(2) 49ers over (3) Packers
AFC Championship
(2) Broncos over (1) Texans
NFC Championship
(5) Seahawks over (2) 49ers
Super Bowl
Seahawks over Broncos (Super Bowl MVP: Percy Harvin)
NFL MVP: Drew Brees
NFL COY: Andy Reid
AFC OPOY: Tom Brady
NFC OPOY: Drew Brees
AFC DPOY: JJ Watt
NFC DPOY: Luke Kuechly
AFC OROY: Giovani Bernard
NFC OROY: Eddie Lacy
AFC DROY: Dee Milliner
NFC DROY: Ezekiel Ansah
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
The Chronicles of Fantasy Football: Draft 3 of 4
I have to be honest. I was not feeling very confident heading into my Keeper League draft. I was coming off a season in which I placed 8th, and I didn't have a ton of great bargains to keep for this season. I did have one great value in Colin Kaepernick, and a WR #3 in Antonio Brown that only cost me a dollar. I also decided to keep Daryl Richardson as a RB #3 for a dollar. My keepers are shown below with their cost. The starting budget for each team in the league was $200.
QB - Colin Kaepernick (SF) - $1
RB - Chris Johnson (TEN) - $42
RB - Daryl Richardson (STL) - $1
WR - Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) - $38
WR - Antonio Brown (PIT) - $1
TE - Jimmy Graham (NO) - $13
D/ST - Seattle (SEA) - $1
K - Stephen Gostkowski - $1
The rules allow me to keep up to 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, and 1 K. I decided not to keep Stevie Johnson for $16 and gamble that I could either get him for cheaper, or get another stud WR to go along with Larry Fitzgerald. I wanted to spend a lot of money to get a stud RB and a stud WR, and then fill my bench with potential breakout players for cheap.
There is a strategy that I like to use in Keeper Auction Drafts. I like to know the inflation of value in the league before I start the draft. Knowing the amount of money available compared to the value available can help you win your league. The basic principle of this strategy states that studs are worth a certain percentage more than their projected cost, and you should be spending your money early in order to acquire the services of someone like Adrian Peterson, rather than "playing it safe" and saving your money to be able to get Bryce Brown to back up LeSean McCoy.
What ends up happening in most keeper auction drafts is that managers wise enough to spend their money up front get deals on studs to help their already loaded line-up, and other managers will get in bidding wars over Alshon Jeffery and Le'Veon Bell, rather than spending the extra fifteen or twenty bucks to get CJ Spiller at the beginning of the draft. A lot of managers end up having a ton of excess cash at the end, meaning they will never lose out of potential sleepers, but I believe that missing out on a guy who is more of a sure thing is a bigger loss.
It takes a lot of work to figure out what your league's "inflation" is, and it only works for auction style formats, but it could help you score that extra stud, and even though you're paying more than his projected value as set by the internet, you're actually likely to save money if you've done your homework.
Alright, now that I got my sharing of knowledge out of the way, let me share the results on my third Fantasy Football Draft in as many nights. This is my Keeper League draft, a ten team standard scoring league, with 6 points for passing TDs. Please take this time to look above to find out who I have already kept.
1. Matt Forte (RB - CHI) $49 - Forte's projected value was around $40, and I was willing to go up to about $55 to grab this guy (remember inflation of value), meaning I saved about 6 bucks on him. I think Forte will be a huge part of Chicago's new offense, as Trestman loves to utilize the running back. It gives me a legit #1 RB, moving Chris Johnson to my RB #2, which is really where he belongs. It also means that Daryl Richardson is my third running back, so I won't have to rely upon a guy who is entering his first full year as a starter.
2. Dwayne Bowe (WR - KC) $24 - I love Bowe this year, as Andy Reid's teams are usually near the top of the league in passing. Bowe has been a top WR before, and now he's playing with the best QB he's ever had. I expect big things from this guy in 2013.
3. DeMarco Murray (RB - DAL) $15 - Why not? I think Dallas runs the ball a bit more this year, as they should. Murray is a great running back if he stays healthy, and is not a bad choice as my #3 RB. If he stays healthy this year, I could keep him for a huge bargain next year.
4. Chris Givens (WR - STL) $2 - This is Sam Bradford's make or break year, and I feel pretty good ending up with the guy who will probably end up being the most explosive player in that offense. Tavon Austin has been getting a ton of hype, but I think the Rams need to stretch the field a bit more this season, and Givens is the best option for long passes.
5. Eddie Lacy (RB - GB) $1 - This was a surprise for me. I actually nominated Lacy to try and take some money off the board, as I figured a bidding war would take place for a rookie who just inherited the job as a starting NFL RB. I was wrong and ended up with a potential solid fourth or fifth running back for a dollar. I can't lose with this deal.
6. Golden Tate (WR - SEA) $2 - I think Tate ends up being the guy in Seattle this year, as his only real competition for the #1 WR spot is Sidney Rice, a guy who has had one great season, and that was a long time ago, and in Minnesota.
7. Kenbrell Thompkins (WR - NE) $1 - I'm willing to take a gamble on a guy who has Tom Brady throwing him the football, especially a guy who has been used heavily in the pre-season.
That makes my roster as follows:
QB - Colin Kaepernick (SF)
RB 1 - Matt Forte (CHI)
RB 2 - Chris Johnson (TEN)
WR 1 - Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
WR 2 - Dwayne Bowe (KC)
WR 3 - Antonio Brown (PIT)
TE - Jimmy Graham (NO)
D/ST - Seattle (SEA)
K - Stephen Gostkowski (NE)
BE (RB 3) - DeMarco Murray (DAL)
BE (RB 4) - Daryl Richardson (STL)
BE (RB 5) - Eddie Lacy (GB)
BE (WR 4) - Golden Tate (SEA)
BE (WR 5) - Kenbrell Thompkins (NE)
No report card from Yahoo on this one, but I think I did okay. I give myself a solid B. I think I need a breakout year from either Tate or Thompkins to have a real shot at the title, but I certainly feel better about this year than I did before the draft.
The big draft is tonight, as my money league drafts at 9 pm. All of my preparation in mock drafts comes down to one night, and I'm looking to get back to the top in my most important league.
QB - Colin Kaepernick (SF) - $1
RB - Chris Johnson (TEN) - $42
RB - Daryl Richardson (STL) - $1
WR - Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) - $38
WR - Antonio Brown (PIT) - $1
TE - Jimmy Graham (NO) - $13
D/ST - Seattle (SEA) - $1
K - Stephen Gostkowski - $1
The rules allow me to keep up to 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, and 1 K. I decided not to keep Stevie Johnson for $16 and gamble that I could either get him for cheaper, or get another stud WR to go along with Larry Fitzgerald. I wanted to spend a lot of money to get a stud RB and a stud WR, and then fill my bench with potential breakout players for cheap.
There is a strategy that I like to use in Keeper Auction Drafts. I like to know the inflation of value in the league before I start the draft. Knowing the amount of money available compared to the value available can help you win your league. The basic principle of this strategy states that studs are worth a certain percentage more than their projected cost, and you should be spending your money early in order to acquire the services of someone like Adrian Peterson, rather than "playing it safe" and saving your money to be able to get Bryce Brown to back up LeSean McCoy.
What ends up happening in most keeper auction drafts is that managers wise enough to spend their money up front get deals on studs to help their already loaded line-up, and other managers will get in bidding wars over Alshon Jeffery and Le'Veon Bell, rather than spending the extra fifteen or twenty bucks to get CJ Spiller at the beginning of the draft. A lot of managers end up having a ton of excess cash at the end, meaning they will never lose out of potential sleepers, but I believe that missing out on a guy who is more of a sure thing is a bigger loss.
It takes a lot of work to figure out what your league's "inflation" is, and it only works for auction style formats, but it could help you score that extra stud, and even though you're paying more than his projected value as set by the internet, you're actually likely to save money if you've done your homework.
Alright, now that I got my sharing of knowledge out of the way, let me share the results on my third Fantasy Football Draft in as many nights. This is my Keeper League draft, a ten team standard scoring league, with 6 points for passing TDs. Please take this time to look above to find out who I have already kept.
1. Matt Forte (RB - CHI) $49 - Forte's projected value was around $40, and I was willing to go up to about $55 to grab this guy (remember inflation of value), meaning I saved about 6 bucks on him. I think Forte will be a huge part of Chicago's new offense, as Trestman loves to utilize the running back. It gives me a legit #1 RB, moving Chris Johnson to my RB #2, which is really where he belongs. It also means that Daryl Richardson is my third running back, so I won't have to rely upon a guy who is entering his first full year as a starter.
2. Dwayne Bowe (WR - KC) $24 - I love Bowe this year, as Andy Reid's teams are usually near the top of the league in passing. Bowe has been a top WR before, and now he's playing with the best QB he's ever had. I expect big things from this guy in 2013.
3. DeMarco Murray (RB - DAL) $15 - Why not? I think Dallas runs the ball a bit more this year, as they should. Murray is a great running back if he stays healthy, and is not a bad choice as my #3 RB. If he stays healthy this year, I could keep him for a huge bargain next year.
4. Chris Givens (WR - STL) $2 - This is Sam Bradford's make or break year, and I feel pretty good ending up with the guy who will probably end up being the most explosive player in that offense. Tavon Austin has been getting a ton of hype, but I think the Rams need to stretch the field a bit more this season, and Givens is the best option for long passes.
5. Eddie Lacy (RB - GB) $1 - This was a surprise for me. I actually nominated Lacy to try and take some money off the board, as I figured a bidding war would take place for a rookie who just inherited the job as a starting NFL RB. I was wrong and ended up with a potential solid fourth or fifth running back for a dollar. I can't lose with this deal.
6. Golden Tate (WR - SEA) $2 - I think Tate ends up being the guy in Seattle this year, as his only real competition for the #1 WR spot is Sidney Rice, a guy who has had one great season, and that was a long time ago, and in Minnesota.
7. Kenbrell Thompkins (WR - NE) $1 - I'm willing to take a gamble on a guy who has Tom Brady throwing him the football, especially a guy who has been used heavily in the pre-season.
That makes my roster as follows:
QB - Colin Kaepernick (SF)
RB 1 - Matt Forte (CHI)
RB 2 - Chris Johnson (TEN)
WR 1 - Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
WR 2 - Dwayne Bowe (KC)
WR 3 - Antonio Brown (PIT)
TE - Jimmy Graham (NO)
D/ST - Seattle (SEA)
K - Stephen Gostkowski (NE)
BE (RB 3) - DeMarco Murray (DAL)
BE (RB 4) - Daryl Richardson (STL)
BE (RB 5) - Eddie Lacy (GB)
BE (WR 4) - Golden Tate (SEA)
BE (WR 5) - Kenbrell Thompkins (NE)
No report card from Yahoo on this one, but I think I did okay. I give myself a solid B. I think I need a breakout year from either Tate or Thompkins to have a real shot at the title, but I certainly feel better about this year than I did before the draft.
The big draft is tonight, as my money league drafts at 9 pm. All of my preparation in mock drafts comes down to one night, and I'm looking to get back to the top in my most important league.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
The Chronicles of Fantasy Football: Draft 2 of 4
I'll admit it. The public league draft was unfair. Just think about how stupid the average person is, and then remember that half the people out there are stupider than that. I have a feeling at least 5 of the managers in my public league are not qualified to work at a Wendy's. Kickers went early and at least one manager in my league drafted three kickers, including the retired Jason Hanson (Hey, if he was good when Detroit sucked, imagine how good he would be when Detroit is just above sucky).
My second draft was a league with people I attended Carthage College with. I have been in this league for a few years now and have never won. I got to the championship league last year, but that's the closest I've gotten. The champion in this league last year was a female. In fact, she won my keeper league in its inaugural year and is one of the best Fantasy Football owners I know. Girls can play Fantasy Football, too.
The rules of this league are pretty common, with 6 points for passing TDs and 1 point for every 10 return yards being the only deviance from standard scoring. Also, there are 8 bench spots, so loading up on sleepers in the draft is quite easy. There are ten teams in this league, mostly owned by females. But remember, girls can manage, too. I selected 9th of 10 in this draft, which is actually where I'd like to draft this year. I want to draft at the end of a round (or at least close to it). This way I can take two players at once and not have to worry about reaching for someone I really want. Once again, before you read my draft results, remember that return yards count the same as rushing and receiving yards.
Round 1 - Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA) - I was debating between Lynch and Charles at this spot before settling on Lynch. I just think that Andy Reid is going to want to throw a little more than KC has in the past. Remember, Reid used to enrage owners of LeSean McCoy. McCoy has incredible talent, but Andy Reid has always been a pass-first coach. This helped me decide to use my first round pick on Lynch and hope that Charles fell to me in the second round. If he didn't, then I would be fine taking another top tier running back,
Round 2 - Jamaal Charles (RB - KC) - Well, that was fortunate. The manager selecting 10th and 11th went QB and receiver (Not a bad choice, considering she got Brees and Megatron). I still think this year you need to grab as many elite runners you can, as it's a quick drop-off at the position. Charles is a YPC beast, and if he can get 15-20 touches per game, including increased work in the passing game, this pick can make me look really smart.
Round 3 - Julio Jones (WR - ATL) - Quarterbacks are going fast and furious, which is good for me. Remember, there are 12 starter-caliber QBs in the NFL and 10 teams in this league. Odds are I'm going to get one of them. Julio was the top WR available, and with my RB position taken care of, I felt good getting the top upside receiver in the ATL.
Round 4 - Demaryius Thomas (WR- DEN) - I now own him in two leagues, meaning I have just become a bigger fan of the Denver Broncos. I can understand Randall Cobb going before him in this league, as return yards are important, but I'm happy to get an elite WR in a pass-first offense with Peyton Manning holding the reigns.
Round 5 - Reggie Bush (RB - DET) - I was going to go to my third receiver and take Reggie Wayne, but the Colts veteran was picked right before I went. The result was me either reaching for a WR, QB, or TE, or to keep loading up at RB. I feel Reggie Bush may end up being the steal of the draft in the 5th round if he can play up to his potential. In Detroit's offense, he has top 10 RB upside, and I'll take that at the end of the 5th round any day.
Round 6 - Antonio Brown (WR - PIT) - I actually like Jordy Nelson and Wes Welker more than Brown this year, but with return yards in play in this league, I can't pass up the punt returner on a team with a great defense. If he runs a couple punts back this year, this pick will end up paying off. Even if he gets three chances to run back a punt per week, that should get me at least 2 more points. I can live with that.
Round 7 - Wes Welker (WR - DEN) - Even though I already had Thomas, Welker is far too good to pass up in the 7th round. My prediction: 108 catches, 1,274 yards, 6 TDs. I would have gone to Russell Wilson at QB, but he went a couple picks before my slot. This meant I was going to be waiting a long time for a QB.
Round 8 - T.Y. Hilton (WR- IND) - I've said it before, Hilton has tremendous talent and is in a really good situation. Plus, he gets return yards and was effective as a returner last year. I do believe in this league Hilton can be a top 20 WR, meaning scoring him in the 8th round is a huge win.
Round 9 - Tavon Austin (WR - STL) - Once again, my pick was stolen right off of my watch list, and Andrew Luck went one pick before me. I decided to take Tavon Austin because he should get me a ton of return yards and is a speedster at the receiver position. If he can develop into a Danny Amendola type receiver and a Percy Harvin type returner, Austin is a top 5 receiver in this league. Even if he doesn't, I still think he's a top 30 guy in this league.
Round 10 - DeMarco Murray (RB- DAL) - The other managers in this league seemed to be as aware as I was about Murray's injury history, as he fell all the way to the 10th round. I was about to go to my last remaining choice at QB in Tony Romo, but I felt Murray's talent was too good to pass on this late. If he stays healthy, he is a top 20 RB, which means he could be trade bait down the road.
Round 11 - Eli Manning (QB - NYG) - This was a reach. I missed out on Romo by taking Murray in the 10th round, and I didn't want to let my first choice of the #2 QBs to fall off the board. I knew I now had to take 2 QBs, and a guy who was once a top 10 fantasy QB isn't a bad place to start. He has the talent and the situation to get back to an elite fantasy level, but can he avoid the turnovers? We shall see.
Round 12 - Zach Sudfeld (TE - NE) - I'm all in on him this year.
Round 13 - Ben Tate (RB - HOU) - If Arian Foster gets hurt early, or if Tate starts week 1, this is instant trade bait. However, if Foster gets hurt and loses the starting job, Tate has top 5 RB talent. I can't lose with this pick.
Round 14 - Kenbrell Thompkins (WR - NE) - This guy is projected to be Tom Brady's #1 target in New England, so I can't pass on that in the 14th round. Once again, if he explodes early, I can either trade him or ride the wave to the playoffs.
Round 15 - Carson Palmer (QB - ARI) - Palmer will probably throw for 4,000 yards, so I don't mind having him as my backup to Eli Manning. He does have the same by week as Eli, so I have 8 weeks to find a suitable replacement for Palmer. I'm hoping to score a QB in a trade, and hopefully Carson Palmer will catch fire in the desert early so I can package him in a deal for an elite QB.
Round 16 - Browns (D/ST - CLE) - The Browns have a tough defense, and I don't feel bad about missing on a ton of other defenses. I plan on streaming my defenses in this league, anyway (and in most leagues, to be honest), so I'll see how Cleveland plays week 1 and likely just pick up whoever is playing against Jacksonville or the Jets.
Round 17 - Adam Vinatieri (K - IND) - Hey! I followed the fantasy rule of waiting 'til the last round to grab a defense and kicker! Who knows? Maybe the Colts offense sputters a couple times a game and Vinatieri kicks 30 field goals this season. I'll likely end up streaming kickers as well.
Yahoo was kind enough to give me a grade for this draft. I scored a C+ according to the scoring system, most likely due to my QB and bye week situation. I think I did a bit better, but let me know what you guys think in the comments below!
Draft 3 of 4 is tonight, with my keeper league drafting. Look for my results either tonight or tomorrow.
My second draft was a league with people I attended Carthage College with. I have been in this league for a few years now and have never won. I got to the championship league last year, but that's the closest I've gotten. The champion in this league last year was a female. In fact, she won my keeper league in its inaugural year and is one of the best Fantasy Football owners I know. Girls can play Fantasy Football, too.
The rules of this league are pretty common, with 6 points for passing TDs and 1 point for every 10 return yards being the only deviance from standard scoring. Also, there are 8 bench spots, so loading up on sleepers in the draft is quite easy. There are ten teams in this league, mostly owned by females. But remember, girls can manage, too. I selected 9th of 10 in this draft, which is actually where I'd like to draft this year. I want to draft at the end of a round (or at least close to it). This way I can take two players at once and not have to worry about reaching for someone I really want. Once again, before you read my draft results, remember that return yards count the same as rushing and receiving yards.
Round 1 - Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA) - I was debating between Lynch and Charles at this spot before settling on Lynch. I just think that Andy Reid is going to want to throw a little more than KC has in the past. Remember, Reid used to enrage owners of LeSean McCoy. McCoy has incredible talent, but Andy Reid has always been a pass-first coach. This helped me decide to use my first round pick on Lynch and hope that Charles fell to me in the second round. If he didn't, then I would be fine taking another top tier running back,
Round 2 - Jamaal Charles (RB - KC) - Well, that was fortunate. The manager selecting 10th and 11th went QB and receiver (Not a bad choice, considering she got Brees and Megatron). I still think this year you need to grab as many elite runners you can, as it's a quick drop-off at the position. Charles is a YPC beast, and if he can get 15-20 touches per game, including increased work in the passing game, this pick can make me look really smart.
Round 3 - Julio Jones (WR - ATL) - Quarterbacks are going fast and furious, which is good for me. Remember, there are 12 starter-caliber QBs in the NFL and 10 teams in this league. Odds are I'm going to get one of them. Julio was the top WR available, and with my RB position taken care of, I felt good getting the top upside receiver in the ATL.
Round 4 - Demaryius Thomas (WR- DEN) - I now own him in two leagues, meaning I have just become a bigger fan of the Denver Broncos. I can understand Randall Cobb going before him in this league, as return yards are important, but I'm happy to get an elite WR in a pass-first offense with Peyton Manning holding the reigns.
Round 5 - Reggie Bush (RB - DET) - I was going to go to my third receiver and take Reggie Wayne, but the Colts veteran was picked right before I went. The result was me either reaching for a WR, QB, or TE, or to keep loading up at RB. I feel Reggie Bush may end up being the steal of the draft in the 5th round if he can play up to his potential. In Detroit's offense, he has top 10 RB upside, and I'll take that at the end of the 5th round any day.
Round 6 - Antonio Brown (WR - PIT) - I actually like Jordy Nelson and Wes Welker more than Brown this year, but with return yards in play in this league, I can't pass up the punt returner on a team with a great defense. If he runs a couple punts back this year, this pick will end up paying off. Even if he gets three chances to run back a punt per week, that should get me at least 2 more points. I can live with that.
Round 7 - Wes Welker (WR - DEN) - Even though I already had Thomas, Welker is far too good to pass up in the 7th round. My prediction: 108 catches, 1,274 yards, 6 TDs. I would have gone to Russell Wilson at QB, but he went a couple picks before my slot. This meant I was going to be waiting a long time for a QB.
Round 8 - T.Y. Hilton (WR- IND) - I've said it before, Hilton has tremendous talent and is in a really good situation. Plus, he gets return yards and was effective as a returner last year. I do believe in this league Hilton can be a top 20 WR, meaning scoring him in the 8th round is a huge win.
Round 9 - Tavon Austin (WR - STL) - Once again, my pick was stolen right off of my watch list, and Andrew Luck went one pick before me. I decided to take Tavon Austin because he should get me a ton of return yards and is a speedster at the receiver position. If he can develop into a Danny Amendola type receiver and a Percy Harvin type returner, Austin is a top 5 receiver in this league. Even if he doesn't, I still think he's a top 30 guy in this league.
Round 10 - DeMarco Murray (RB- DAL) - The other managers in this league seemed to be as aware as I was about Murray's injury history, as he fell all the way to the 10th round. I was about to go to my last remaining choice at QB in Tony Romo, but I felt Murray's talent was too good to pass on this late. If he stays healthy, he is a top 20 RB, which means he could be trade bait down the road.
Round 11 - Eli Manning (QB - NYG) - This was a reach. I missed out on Romo by taking Murray in the 10th round, and I didn't want to let my first choice of the #2 QBs to fall off the board. I knew I now had to take 2 QBs, and a guy who was once a top 10 fantasy QB isn't a bad place to start. He has the talent and the situation to get back to an elite fantasy level, but can he avoid the turnovers? We shall see.
Round 12 - Zach Sudfeld (TE - NE) - I'm all in on him this year.
Round 13 - Ben Tate (RB - HOU) - If Arian Foster gets hurt early, or if Tate starts week 1, this is instant trade bait. However, if Foster gets hurt and loses the starting job, Tate has top 5 RB talent. I can't lose with this pick.
Round 14 - Kenbrell Thompkins (WR - NE) - This guy is projected to be Tom Brady's #1 target in New England, so I can't pass on that in the 14th round. Once again, if he explodes early, I can either trade him or ride the wave to the playoffs.
Round 15 - Carson Palmer (QB - ARI) - Palmer will probably throw for 4,000 yards, so I don't mind having him as my backup to Eli Manning. He does have the same by week as Eli, so I have 8 weeks to find a suitable replacement for Palmer. I'm hoping to score a QB in a trade, and hopefully Carson Palmer will catch fire in the desert early so I can package him in a deal for an elite QB.
Round 16 - Browns (D/ST - CLE) - The Browns have a tough defense, and I don't feel bad about missing on a ton of other defenses. I plan on streaming my defenses in this league, anyway (and in most leagues, to be honest), so I'll see how Cleveland plays week 1 and likely just pick up whoever is playing against Jacksonville or the Jets.
Round 17 - Adam Vinatieri (K - IND) - Hey! I followed the fantasy rule of waiting 'til the last round to grab a defense and kicker! Who knows? Maybe the Colts offense sputters a couple times a game and Vinatieri kicks 30 field goals this season. I'll likely end up streaming kickers as well.
Yahoo was kind enough to give me a grade for this draft. I scored a C+ according to the scoring system, most likely due to my QB and bye week situation. I think I did a bit better, but let me know what you guys think in the comments below!
Draft 3 of 4 is tonight, with my keeper league drafting. Look for my results either tonight or tomorrow.
Sunday, September 1, 2013
The Chronicles of Fantasy Football: Draft 1 of 4
This year, I have signed up for 4 Fantasy Football leagues. One is a money league that I have been in for three years, winning it two years ago. The entry fee is $50 and I won nearly $300 when all was said and done. This is the league to which I pay most attention on Sundays, the only league that I care a great deal about winning, and the league that drains me the most emotionally. I'm in a great mood on Tuesday morning if I've won, and down in the dumps if I've lost.
The second is a keeper league that I run. It's a little challenging because, well it's a keeper league. I really don't have a chance at getting many of the top ranked players if they are kept by other guys. However, I can keep someone for as long as I want to if I'm willing to pay the price. It's also an auction league, which really means I can get someone I really want, regardless of where I draft from, as long as I'm willing to pay for him.
The third is a league comprised of friends I went to college with. This league pretty much has standard scoring, except for return yards. We get 1 point for every 10, meaning guys who return kicks and punts have even higher values. Darren Sproles and Randall Cobb always go early in this league.
The fourth is a league I'm in every year, and I usually win. I'm not in the same league every year, however, so I can't gloat to everyone in the league. My fourth league is always a public league with nobody in it that I know. I take a great deal of pleasure in absolutely destroying complete strangers week in and week out.
Tonight, I had my first real draft of the year. If you read my last post, you know I've done a great deal of mock drafts already this year, mostly in preparation for my money league. However, tonight's draft was for the 4th league, my public league. I did a quick mock before the draft, just to get ready for a standard scoring strategy. This league is on ESPN, so it's a bit different from Yahoo leagues, which provides some challenges, but I still feel I ended up with a good team. Below is a round-by-round analysis of my Public League Draft. I only included my picks from each round, but I will mention my thoughts on some of the players who were drafted. Note: I drafted from the 5th spot of this snake draft.
Round 1 - Ray Rice (RB - Baltimore) - I feel good about getting Rice here, who I actually have third in my rankings right now. I think he will get a ton of touches, and could see around 1,800 all purpose yards and 12 total scores. With Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster already off the board, I felt Rice was the safest pick out of a remaining group I had ranked in the same tier that included Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, and LeSean McCoy.
Round 2 - Matt Forte (RB - Chicago) - Forte was the 11th running back on my rankings, and I fell like this year you should have at least one out of the top 12 backs on your team, if not two. On my rankings sheet, Forte was the best available option, so this pick was a no-brainer. It gives me two stud running backs every week, although with them both on bye in week 8, that could cause some troubles down the road, but I have 7 weeks to figure out a solution.
Round 3 - Demaryius Thomas (WR - Denver) - Looking back at this pick, it's the only one I wish I could have back. It's not that I think he shouldn't go in the third round, but ESPN leagues allow you to use a FLEX spot, which can be a RB, WR, or TE. With Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, and MJD somehow still on the board, I could have grabbed one of them and had two studs as well as a just below stud guy with upside who I could use as a FLEX.
Round 4 - Randall Cobb (WR - Green Bay) - This is another reason why I'm questioning my Demaryius pick. I still ended up with Cobb at WR. Cobb is a great choice for a #1 WR this year, as he will probably end up with over 100 catches. I fell like getting him in the fourth round is tremendous value.
Round 5 - Dwayne Bowe (WR - Kansas City) - Another guy who is a great choice for a #1 WR, Bower gives me 3 studs at he position. Add that to my two stud running backs, and my team is looking pretty good so far.
Round 6 - Lamar Miller (RB - Miami) - I am not super high on Miller this year, and I certainly wouldn't take him where he's been going in most of my mocks (4th round), but I feel like I can rotate him and Bowe at my FLEX spot, and have half of my solution at RB for week 8. The first kicker came off the board in this round, as a guy on autopick apparently didn't set his rankings.
Round 7 - Jordy Nelson (WR - Green Bay) - I would have been more excited about this pick if I didn't already have Cobb, but I think Nelson is too good of value to pass on in the 7th round, regardless of how much talent I already had at receiver.
Round 8 - Russell Wilson (QB - Seattle) - My pick prompted a mini-run on QBs, as 3 more were taken in the next 7 picks (Stafford, Romo, Luck). I feel like getting Wilson here is very good value, and I didn't want to wait another round and risk not getting him. I'm very high on him this year.
Round 9 - T.Y. Hilton (WR - Indianapolis) - I'm really high on this guy this year. He could easily lead his team in fantasy points as a receiver. Yes, he could outscore Reggie Wayne. I'm not saying it will happen, but with his skills and with how much they have used him in the preseason, it's not a bad bet.
Round 10 - Daryl Richardson (RB - St. Louis) - He was the last starting running back I felt really good about left. My other options were Mark Ingram and the Law Firm, but I think the Saints will throw a ton and BJGE will eventually lose his job to Giovanni Bernard. Richardson was the safest pick at this spot, and I really needed another RB.
Round 11 - Kenbrell Thompkins (WR - New Enlgand) - He's currently projected as a starting WR in New England, which means if he holds on to that job, this could be the steal of the draft. The Pats have used him a ton in the preseason, and if Brady continues to look his way often, he has top 20 WR upside.
Round 12 - Bernard Pierce (RB - Baltimore) - No explanation really needed here. Just an insurance policy on Ray Rice.
Round 13 - Brandon Myers (TE - New York Giants) - I waited about as long as possible to take a TE, and this is a safe guy to take this late. He should get at least 60 catches, and has the upside to catch 75 passes. Eli is going to throw the ball a lot, and remember that Martellus Bennett was doing quite well last year for the Giants until he got hurt.
Round 14 - Bears D/ST - Okay, I took a defense before the second to last round, but I felt that since I had pretty much filled all of my needs, I would take the third best defense in terms of fantasy. Even if they don't score 9 touchdowns like last season (which they probably won't), they still force enough turnovers for this to be a very safe pick this late.
Round 15 - Phil Dawson (K - San Francisco) - I broke another rule, taking a kicker before the least round. However, I want my kicker to have a strong and accurate leg (Dawson is 14/15 from beyond 50 over the past 2 years). I also want him to play for a team with a good offense that will be ahead, and that has a good running game and strong defense. Dawson might be the best fantasy kicker when it's all said and done this year, and with all of my needs filled, it's not a terrible pick.
Round 16 - Zach Sudfeld (TE - New England) - He's currently one of two healthy tight ends on the Patriots roster, and Tom Brady is his QB. The guy being called "Baby Gronk" was my last pick of the draft because he has a ton of upside. He should have the starting job Week 1, and if he can live up to his expectations, he could be my starting tight end or trade bait.
My Team:
QB - Wilson
RB - Rice, Forte, Miller, Pierce
WR - D. Thomas, Cobb, Bowe, Nelson, Hilton, Thompkins
TE - Myers, Sudfeld
D/ST - Bears
K - Dawson
Feel free to comment below with your thoughts. I have drafts Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night that I plan to write about.
The second is a keeper league that I run. It's a little challenging because, well it's a keeper league. I really don't have a chance at getting many of the top ranked players if they are kept by other guys. However, I can keep someone for as long as I want to if I'm willing to pay the price. It's also an auction league, which really means I can get someone I really want, regardless of where I draft from, as long as I'm willing to pay for him.
The third is a league comprised of friends I went to college with. This league pretty much has standard scoring, except for return yards. We get 1 point for every 10, meaning guys who return kicks and punts have even higher values. Darren Sproles and Randall Cobb always go early in this league.
The fourth is a league I'm in every year, and I usually win. I'm not in the same league every year, however, so I can't gloat to everyone in the league. My fourth league is always a public league with nobody in it that I know. I take a great deal of pleasure in absolutely destroying complete strangers week in and week out.
Tonight, I had my first real draft of the year. If you read my last post, you know I've done a great deal of mock drafts already this year, mostly in preparation for my money league. However, tonight's draft was for the 4th league, my public league. I did a quick mock before the draft, just to get ready for a standard scoring strategy. This league is on ESPN, so it's a bit different from Yahoo leagues, which provides some challenges, but I still feel I ended up with a good team. Below is a round-by-round analysis of my Public League Draft. I only included my picks from each round, but I will mention my thoughts on some of the players who were drafted. Note: I drafted from the 5th spot of this snake draft.
Round 1 - Ray Rice (RB - Baltimore) - I feel good about getting Rice here, who I actually have third in my rankings right now. I think he will get a ton of touches, and could see around 1,800 all purpose yards and 12 total scores. With Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster already off the board, I felt Rice was the safest pick out of a remaining group I had ranked in the same tier that included Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, and LeSean McCoy.
Round 2 - Matt Forte (RB - Chicago) - Forte was the 11th running back on my rankings, and I fell like this year you should have at least one out of the top 12 backs on your team, if not two. On my rankings sheet, Forte was the best available option, so this pick was a no-brainer. It gives me two stud running backs every week, although with them both on bye in week 8, that could cause some troubles down the road, but I have 7 weeks to figure out a solution.
Round 3 - Demaryius Thomas (WR - Denver) - Looking back at this pick, it's the only one I wish I could have back. It's not that I think he shouldn't go in the third round, but ESPN leagues allow you to use a FLEX spot, which can be a RB, WR, or TE. With Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, and MJD somehow still on the board, I could have grabbed one of them and had two studs as well as a just below stud guy with upside who I could use as a FLEX.
Round 4 - Randall Cobb (WR - Green Bay) - This is another reason why I'm questioning my Demaryius pick. I still ended up with Cobb at WR. Cobb is a great choice for a #1 WR this year, as he will probably end up with over 100 catches. I fell like getting him in the fourth round is tremendous value.
Round 5 - Dwayne Bowe (WR - Kansas City) - Another guy who is a great choice for a #1 WR, Bower gives me 3 studs at he position. Add that to my two stud running backs, and my team is looking pretty good so far.
Round 6 - Lamar Miller (RB - Miami) - I am not super high on Miller this year, and I certainly wouldn't take him where he's been going in most of my mocks (4th round), but I feel like I can rotate him and Bowe at my FLEX spot, and have half of my solution at RB for week 8. The first kicker came off the board in this round, as a guy on autopick apparently didn't set his rankings.
Round 7 - Jordy Nelson (WR - Green Bay) - I would have been more excited about this pick if I didn't already have Cobb, but I think Nelson is too good of value to pass on in the 7th round, regardless of how much talent I already had at receiver.
Round 8 - Russell Wilson (QB - Seattle) - My pick prompted a mini-run on QBs, as 3 more were taken in the next 7 picks (Stafford, Romo, Luck). I feel like getting Wilson here is very good value, and I didn't want to wait another round and risk not getting him. I'm very high on him this year.
Round 9 - T.Y. Hilton (WR - Indianapolis) - I'm really high on this guy this year. He could easily lead his team in fantasy points as a receiver. Yes, he could outscore Reggie Wayne. I'm not saying it will happen, but with his skills and with how much they have used him in the preseason, it's not a bad bet.
Round 10 - Daryl Richardson (RB - St. Louis) - He was the last starting running back I felt really good about left. My other options were Mark Ingram and the Law Firm, but I think the Saints will throw a ton and BJGE will eventually lose his job to Giovanni Bernard. Richardson was the safest pick at this spot, and I really needed another RB.
Round 11 - Kenbrell Thompkins (WR - New Enlgand) - He's currently projected as a starting WR in New England, which means if he holds on to that job, this could be the steal of the draft. The Pats have used him a ton in the preseason, and if Brady continues to look his way often, he has top 20 WR upside.
Round 12 - Bernard Pierce (RB - Baltimore) - No explanation really needed here. Just an insurance policy on Ray Rice.
Round 13 - Brandon Myers (TE - New York Giants) - I waited about as long as possible to take a TE, and this is a safe guy to take this late. He should get at least 60 catches, and has the upside to catch 75 passes. Eli is going to throw the ball a lot, and remember that Martellus Bennett was doing quite well last year for the Giants until he got hurt.
Round 14 - Bears D/ST - Okay, I took a defense before the second to last round, but I felt that since I had pretty much filled all of my needs, I would take the third best defense in terms of fantasy. Even if they don't score 9 touchdowns like last season (which they probably won't), they still force enough turnovers for this to be a very safe pick this late.
Round 15 - Phil Dawson (K - San Francisco) - I broke another rule, taking a kicker before the least round. However, I want my kicker to have a strong and accurate leg (Dawson is 14/15 from beyond 50 over the past 2 years). I also want him to play for a team with a good offense that will be ahead, and that has a good running game and strong defense. Dawson might be the best fantasy kicker when it's all said and done this year, and with all of my needs filled, it's not a terrible pick.
Round 16 - Zach Sudfeld (TE - New England) - He's currently one of two healthy tight ends on the Patriots roster, and Tom Brady is his QB. The guy being called "Baby Gronk" was my last pick of the draft because he has a ton of upside. He should have the starting job Week 1, and if he can live up to his expectations, he could be my starting tight end or trade bait.
My Team:
QB - Wilson
RB - Rice, Forte, Miller, Pierce
WR - D. Thomas, Cobb, Bowe, Nelson, Hilton, Thompkins
TE - Myers, Sudfeld
D/ST - Bears
K - Dawson
Feel free to comment below with your thoughts. I have drafts Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night that I plan to write about.
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