I like new Jersey's as much as the next person, but what is this?
Friday, January 10, 2014
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Bears Future In Question
On the night that Mike Ditka, one of the greatest Bears of all time, had his jersey retired, the Bears learned they may have an actual QB controversy on their hands. Josh McCown led the Bears to a 45-28 win at home on Monday Night Football, completing 27 of 36 passes for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also added a rushing score, where he juked the defensive player out of his mind and leaped over several Cowboys players while being spun like a helicopter into the end zone. McCown did not turn the ball over, and instead always seemed to make the right decision.
The game last night was just the latest in a stretch of great performances from the backup QB, and it raises a question: If McCown has played this well, how can you not go with the hot hand, even if Cutler does return this season? There are several arguments for McCown, and fewer for Cutler. So I guess the question is: Why is this even a debate?
The first argument for McCown is simple: Stats. Look at the stats and it tells the story of who has played better this season. Jay Cutler has thrown for more yards this season, and it is really the only stat which he leads. Cutler has a 63% completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. McCown, on the other hand, has a 66.8% completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Cutler has a QBR of 63.2 (Rating of 88.4), while McCown has a QBR of 85.7 (Rating of 109.8). Looking at the raw numbers, it would appear that McCown has outperformed Cutler by far.
Now, let's go to some more advanced and key stats. In the 4th quarter, when the game is within 7 points in either direction, Jay Cutler has completed 64.3% of his passes and has 3 TDs to 2 INTs. McCown has completed 70.4% of his passes and has 2 TDs and has not thrown a pick. Another key stat is how these two guys play against their own division. Cutler has a QB Rating of 76.7, with 6 TDs and 6 INTs in divisional games, while McCown has a QB Rating of 104.3 (5 TDs, 0 INTs). When trailing by 1-8 points, Cutler's QB Rating is just 73.0, while McCown boasts an impressive 126.9. Against the blitz, Jay Cutler has a QB Rating of 72.8, while McCown's rating is 112.1.
Looking at all of these stats, it's clear that McCown can perform under pressure, and actually has outplayed Cutler in key situations. Cutler has a few arguments for him, however. Cutler does throw the deep ball better. He was improving, and was actually playing the best football of his career before he got hurt. And, whether we like it or not, the Bears traded everything for Cutler and are determined to show it was not a dumb move. The front office will undoubtedly push Trestman into starting Cutler down the stretch if he is healthy. This will help make the decision easier on whether or not to re-sign Jay Cutler.
The greatest argument to be made for McCown isn't one of stats. It isn't one that shows on the field, at least not obviously (until that great TD run against Dallas). It's the little things. It's his body language on and off the field that sets him apart from Cutler. McCown shows the attitude of a winner, while Cutler exhibits one of a three-year-old when things don't go his way. It's the fact that McCown utilizes his best receiver, Alshon Jeffery, as much as he does Brandon Marshall.
The plan for the future? There are several choices, and an argument could be made for each one. The first is to re-sign Cutler to a 3 year deal. Give him the chance to develop under Trestman, but draft a QB just in case. Another is to utilize the Franchise Tag on Cutler, pay out the nose for one year, and be stuck in this situation again next winter. Another option is to not re-sign either QB and draft one early, hoping he develops into the next Andrew Luck.
My choice may be one of the less popular options. I would move forward with Josh McCown, and let Cutler get his money somewhere else (like Tennessee or Minnesota). I would start McCown next year, knowing full well that he will be 35 years old when next season starts. I would draft a QB in the second or third round. There will be plenty of options available that late (AJ McCarron, Aaron Murray, Brett Hundley, Zach Mettenberger, Tahj Boyd). Let McCown mentor the young guy and let Trestman work with him to develop him. Use the money saved to spend on defense, and draft smart by focusing on needs like the defensive line and safeties.
This plan could take a couple years and is not guaranteed to work, but it's better than being stuck in the middle, as the Bears have been the past few seasons.
The game last night was just the latest in a stretch of great performances from the backup QB, and it raises a question: If McCown has played this well, how can you not go with the hot hand, even if Cutler does return this season? There are several arguments for McCown, and fewer for Cutler. So I guess the question is: Why is this even a debate?
The first argument for McCown is simple: Stats. Look at the stats and it tells the story of who has played better this season. Jay Cutler has thrown for more yards this season, and it is really the only stat which he leads. Cutler has a 63% completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. McCown, on the other hand, has a 66.8% completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Cutler has a QBR of 63.2 (Rating of 88.4), while McCown has a QBR of 85.7 (Rating of 109.8). Looking at the raw numbers, it would appear that McCown has outperformed Cutler by far.
Now, let's go to some more advanced and key stats. In the 4th quarter, when the game is within 7 points in either direction, Jay Cutler has completed 64.3% of his passes and has 3 TDs to 2 INTs. McCown has completed 70.4% of his passes and has 2 TDs and has not thrown a pick. Another key stat is how these two guys play against their own division. Cutler has a QB Rating of 76.7, with 6 TDs and 6 INTs in divisional games, while McCown has a QB Rating of 104.3 (5 TDs, 0 INTs). When trailing by 1-8 points, Cutler's QB Rating is just 73.0, while McCown boasts an impressive 126.9. Against the blitz, Jay Cutler has a QB Rating of 72.8, while McCown's rating is 112.1.
Looking at all of these stats, it's clear that McCown can perform under pressure, and actually has outplayed Cutler in key situations. Cutler has a few arguments for him, however. Cutler does throw the deep ball better. He was improving, and was actually playing the best football of his career before he got hurt. And, whether we like it or not, the Bears traded everything for Cutler and are determined to show it was not a dumb move. The front office will undoubtedly push Trestman into starting Cutler down the stretch if he is healthy. This will help make the decision easier on whether or not to re-sign Jay Cutler.
The greatest argument to be made for McCown isn't one of stats. It isn't one that shows on the field, at least not obviously (until that great TD run against Dallas). It's the little things. It's his body language on and off the field that sets him apart from Cutler. McCown shows the attitude of a winner, while Cutler exhibits one of a three-year-old when things don't go his way. It's the fact that McCown utilizes his best receiver, Alshon Jeffery, as much as he does Brandon Marshall.
The plan for the future? There are several choices, and an argument could be made for each one. The first is to re-sign Cutler to a 3 year deal. Give him the chance to develop under Trestman, but draft a QB just in case. Another is to utilize the Franchise Tag on Cutler, pay out the nose for one year, and be stuck in this situation again next winter. Another option is to not re-sign either QB and draft one early, hoping he develops into the next Andrew Luck.
My choice may be one of the less popular options. I would move forward with Josh McCown, and let Cutler get his money somewhere else (like Tennessee or Minnesota). I would start McCown next year, knowing full well that he will be 35 years old when next season starts. I would draft a QB in the second or third round. There will be plenty of options available that late (AJ McCarron, Aaron Murray, Brett Hundley, Zach Mettenberger, Tahj Boyd). Let McCown mentor the young guy and let Trestman work with him to develop him. Use the money saved to spend on defense, and draft smart by focusing on needs like the defensive line and safeties.
This plan could take a couple years and is not guaranteed to work, but it's better than being stuck in the middle, as the Bears have been the past few seasons.
Monday, December 9, 2013
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
What to do, what to do?
Its the question that has been being discussed around the water coolers at work and over the radio waves. What should the Bears do this off season? With Josh McCown playing like he is what should the Bears do with Jay Cutler? Well I am here to answer these questions, at least in my opinion.
First off the Jay Cutler question. If anything Josh McCown has shown that you don't need to be an elite quarterback to succeed in the Mark Trestman offense. You don't need a big arm, you don't need to be supremely intelligent, you don't even need to have pin point precision. You just have to buy into the system. I know what your thinking. I agree with you. I am not proposing that just anybody should run the offense. That being said here is what I propose. Offer Jay Cutler a 10 million a year deal. If he takes the deal you just got Jay Cutler for the approximate price of Alex Smith. If he rejects it then you have saved some money. You then decide to Double Josh McCowns salary. Give him a 2 year deal worth 3 million dollars. With Cutler likely departing you have to draft a QB. (Side-note: Even if Cutler stays you need to draft a QB of the future). I don't like the idea of reaching for somebody in the first round, but by my estimation Aaron Murray and Tajh Boyd would still be around by Chicago's second round pick. I personally would go with Murray and hope he develops similarly to Stafford. You then need to build the team to win as Stafford is hitting his prime. To do that you need to help the defense. You will likely be drafting Clinton-Dix in the first round to address some db issues. Any you probably take a D-lineman in the third round. You offer Julius Peppers a restructured deal and if he does not take it you sadly have to let him walk. Using the money you have saved on Cutler and Peppers you pay Brandon Marshall, and resign Charles Tillman. Jennings likely asks for too much money and becomes a casualty of the being too expensive. If you can get a bargain on either Marshall or Tillman then you can make a run at Jennings, if not then you will have to draft a corner in a later round of the draft.
The Bears are in a relatively good position but they have to start building towards the future. If they don't start the rebuilding process now they will end up riding the current team they have into the ground.
Please feel free to leave your thoughts and comments.
Friday, October 18, 2013
Thursday, September 19, 2013
The Impact of Trent Richardson's Trade
I've been in the city of Cleveland once in my life. I was there about ten years ago (maybe more?) to try out for the Kids version of Jeopardy (No, I didn't make it to the show). Living near Chicago, I had assumed that all urban areas were big, booming cities with upbeat people. Then, I went to Cleveland. The people seemed like there was nothing to be excited about. Let's be honest, there wasn't. The Indians hadn't won a World Series since 1948. The Cavs were among the worst teams in the NBA and had never won a title, or even been to the NBA Finals. The Browns had just come back into town, but there was nothing special about this Browns team (The old one that moved to Baltimore had already won a Super Bowl). They did make the playoffs in 2002, but didn't make any noise once getting there.
Then came the 2003 NBA Draft. The city of Cleveland seemed to come alive as their hometown hero, LeBron James, was taken 1st overall by the Cavs and immediately became the face of the franchise. Between the years of 2005 and 2010, the Cavs made the playoffs every year, won two division titles, and reached the NBA Finals once (in 2009, where they were swept by San Antonio). Then came "The Decision". LeBron seemed to be tired of actually having to compete to win titles, so he left his home town for fun in the sun, and has won two titles in three years, and has actually reached the NBA Finals all three seasons in Miami. The Cavs have not reached the playoffs since LeBron left.
The Indians may be the best sports franchise in Cleveland. As bad as they had been since winning their last title 65 years ago, the Indians have 7 division titles over the last 18 years and have two AL pennants. In fact, the Indians seem to be headed to the playoffs this season as a Wild Card, as the Texas Rangers continue to struggle near the end of the season (again). The Indians still can't hold a true superstar, and that may be the problem that has held them out of contention since 1948. Cleveland is still a small-market team, and in a sport with no salary cap, the Indians may continue to lose stars in the future.
Now, on to the Browns. The Browns may be one of the worst professional sports franchises of all time. They have not had relevant success in the NFL since the Stone Age, and have continued to make bad decisions with their team. The 2012 NFL Draft seemed to be the lone bright spot for the struggling Browns, as they made a move to trade up for Trent Richardson, a running back out of Alabama that may have contended for the Heisman if it wasn't for Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck.
Everyone seems to focus on the top 2 picks when referring to the 2012 draft, and those guys are deserving of the recognition. Andrew Luck took the Colts, a 2 win team a season before, to an 11-5 record and a Wild Card bid to the post-season. The Colts seem to have their QB of the future in Luck, and are set up for continued success as long as Luck stays healthy. The Redskins traded away the Capitol building to acquire the second pick, with which they took RGIII. The 'Skins won the NFC East in the '12-'13 season, but with RGIII's health uncertain, it may be another year (at least) before they see the post-season again.
Back to Trent Richardson. The Browns missed out on the top 2 quarterbacks, the only guys at the time who seemed to be the "QB of the Future" type players. Their logical choice was to take the best fit on the board, which was easily Trent Richardson. Running backs usually have more success than do QBs early on in their careers, because the transition from the college game to the pros is much easier for a runner than for a passer. In fact, Richardson rushed for nearly 1,000 yards and put up 11 touchdowns on the ground in 2012, despite being hampered by injuries all season. He became the Browns best player in just one season and Cleveland (for once) seemed to be headed in the right direction.
The Browns have not had a steady quarterback in recent memory. That made this season Brandon Weeden's chance to show he could be the guy to lead the offense. If he fails, the Browns will likely move in a different direction at QB. The Browns seem to have an increased focus on the passing game, which does not play to their strengths at all. Stevie Wonder could see that Brandon Weeden is not a game-changing QB like any of the young "QB of the Future" players out there (Luck, RGIII, Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton), but the Browns seem to be determined to show that he is and prove they didn't waste a first round pick on him. Hint: they did.
I do agree that the Browns need to make a change at QB, but what they need more is a change in style. I could have seen them being very successful running a Houston Texans type offense, with the run game and clock control being the focus. They could have used their stud running back to set up the play action game and use their tight end Jordan Cameron (who now becomes their best offensive weapon) to keep teams honest in the passing game. It wouldn't have been perfect, but with a QB like Weeden, the goal has to become minimizing risk, and handing the ball to Richardson would have been the best way to do that.
If you take a look at the teams that succeeded with young players last year, you notice one thing. Coaches changed their plans to adapt to the strengths of their best players. The game used to force players to adjust to new systems, but now, the best teams know that if they want to succeed, they have to change their plans as well. The Browns seemed unwilling to do that, and that is why they chose to trade their best player. They want to see how Brandon Weeden (or whoever is at QB now) can do running the show, and they obviously want to go in a different direction for the future.
The trade of Trent Richardson to the Colts forces Cleveland to take a QB in the first round next year (or a running back if Weeden or Hoyer magically become able to play QB). They will likely have a top 10 pick (their own), and a pick somewhere in between 20-25 (from Indy). Now, it is possible that they could use their two picks as trade bait to a team that has a pick above them, but there are plenty of poor teams that need a QB right now and are willing to trade away their future in hopes of landing the next Andrew Luck or RGIII.
The Colts become a playoff team this year in my book, knocking the Ravens out of the picture and grabbing the sixth and final spot in the AFC. I still don't see them being good enough to beat Houston for the division title. The Colts still have some work to do on defense, but their offense seems to be set for a long and dominant run as one of the best in the league. They likely will miss the chance to take an offensive lineman or pass rusher in next year's draft, but there is always free agency for that.
In the end, the Colts are the clear winner of this trade. They end of getting two of the top three guys from the 2012 NFL Draft, and only had to give up a late first round pick in next year's draft to do so. It is possible that we could look back at this trade in a few years and see that the Browns didn't do too poorly in this deal, but it's unlikely. Unless their staff can realize they need to make changes to fit their players, rather than forcing players to fit the system, the Browns, will continue to struggle.
The Browns success may come one day, but until then, it leaves the city hoping that Terry Francona can save the city of Cleveland like he did with Boston. Or maybe, just maybe, will the city's hometown superstar come back to try and end the suffering of America's worst sports city? LeBron James is set to be a free agent next summer.
Then came the 2003 NBA Draft. The city of Cleveland seemed to come alive as their hometown hero, LeBron James, was taken 1st overall by the Cavs and immediately became the face of the franchise. Between the years of 2005 and 2010, the Cavs made the playoffs every year, won two division titles, and reached the NBA Finals once (in 2009, where they were swept by San Antonio). Then came "The Decision". LeBron seemed to be tired of actually having to compete to win titles, so he left his home town for fun in the sun, and has won two titles in three years, and has actually reached the NBA Finals all three seasons in Miami. The Cavs have not reached the playoffs since LeBron left.
The Indians may be the best sports franchise in Cleveland. As bad as they had been since winning their last title 65 years ago, the Indians have 7 division titles over the last 18 years and have two AL pennants. In fact, the Indians seem to be headed to the playoffs this season as a Wild Card, as the Texas Rangers continue to struggle near the end of the season (again). The Indians still can't hold a true superstar, and that may be the problem that has held them out of contention since 1948. Cleveland is still a small-market team, and in a sport with no salary cap, the Indians may continue to lose stars in the future.
Now, on to the Browns. The Browns may be one of the worst professional sports franchises of all time. They have not had relevant success in the NFL since the Stone Age, and have continued to make bad decisions with their team. The 2012 NFL Draft seemed to be the lone bright spot for the struggling Browns, as they made a move to trade up for Trent Richardson, a running back out of Alabama that may have contended for the Heisman if it wasn't for Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck.
Everyone seems to focus on the top 2 picks when referring to the 2012 draft, and those guys are deserving of the recognition. Andrew Luck took the Colts, a 2 win team a season before, to an 11-5 record and a Wild Card bid to the post-season. The Colts seem to have their QB of the future in Luck, and are set up for continued success as long as Luck stays healthy. The Redskins traded away the Capitol building to acquire the second pick, with which they took RGIII. The 'Skins won the NFC East in the '12-'13 season, but with RGIII's health uncertain, it may be another year (at least) before they see the post-season again.
Back to Trent Richardson. The Browns missed out on the top 2 quarterbacks, the only guys at the time who seemed to be the "QB of the Future" type players. Their logical choice was to take the best fit on the board, which was easily Trent Richardson. Running backs usually have more success than do QBs early on in their careers, because the transition from the college game to the pros is much easier for a runner than for a passer. In fact, Richardson rushed for nearly 1,000 yards and put up 11 touchdowns on the ground in 2012, despite being hampered by injuries all season. He became the Browns best player in just one season and Cleveland (for once) seemed to be headed in the right direction.
The Browns have not had a steady quarterback in recent memory. That made this season Brandon Weeden's chance to show he could be the guy to lead the offense. If he fails, the Browns will likely move in a different direction at QB. The Browns seem to have an increased focus on the passing game, which does not play to their strengths at all. Stevie Wonder could see that Brandon Weeden is not a game-changing QB like any of the young "QB of the Future" players out there (Luck, RGIII, Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton), but the Browns seem to be determined to show that he is and prove they didn't waste a first round pick on him. Hint: they did.
I do agree that the Browns need to make a change at QB, but what they need more is a change in style. I could have seen them being very successful running a Houston Texans type offense, with the run game and clock control being the focus. They could have used their stud running back to set up the play action game and use their tight end Jordan Cameron (who now becomes their best offensive weapon) to keep teams honest in the passing game. It wouldn't have been perfect, but with a QB like Weeden, the goal has to become minimizing risk, and handing the ball to Richardson would have been the best way to do that.
If you take a look at the teams that succeeded with young players last year, you notice one thing. Coaches changed their plans to adapt to the strengths of their best players. The game used to force players to adjust to new systems, but now, the best teams know that if they want to succeed, they have to change their plans as well. The Browns seemed unwilling to do that, and that is why they chose to trade their best player. They want to see how Brandon Weeden (or whoever is at QB now) can do running the show, and they obviously want to go in a different direction for the future.
The trade of Trent Richardson to the Colts forces Cleveland to take a QB in the first round next year (or a running back if Weeden or Hoyer magically become able to play QB). They will likely have a top 10 pick (their own), and a pick somewhere in between 20-25 (from Indy). Now, it is possible that they could use their two picks as trade bait to a team that has a pick above them, but there are plenty of poor teams that need a QB right now and are willing to trade away their future in hopes of landing the next Andrew Luck or RGIII.
The Colts become a playoff team this year in my book, knocking the Ravens out of the picture and grabbing the sixth and final spot in the AFC. I still don't see them being good enough to beat Houston for the division title. The Colts still have some work to do on defense, but their offense seems to be set for a long and dominant run as one of the best in the league. They likely will miss the chance to take an offensive lineman or pass rusher in next year's draft, but there is always free agency for that.
In the end, the Colts are the clear winner of this trade. They end of getting two of the top three guys from the 2012 NFL Draft, and only had to give up a late first round pick in next year's draft to do so. It is possible that we could look back at this trade in a few years and see that the Browns didn't do too poorly in this deal, but it's unlikely. Unless their staff can realize they need to make changes to fit their players, rather than forcing players to fit the system, the Browns, will continue to struggle.
The Browns success may come one day, but until then, it leaves the city hoping that Terry Francona can save the city of Cleveland like he did with Boston. Or maybe, just maybe, will the city's hometown superstar come back to try and end the suffering of America's worst sports city? LeBron James is set to be a free agent next summer.
Thursday, September 5, 2013
The Chronicles of Fantasy Football: Draft 4 of 4
Alright, folks. Draft season is over. I had my final draft last night, as my money league's drafts took place. This league is filled with very intelligent managers who have been playing Fantasy Football for years. It is the league that gives me the most trouble every year, even if I have a healthy team. I won this league in 2011, mainly by having an incredible draft. I ended up landing Arian Foster (along with Ben Tate as a handcuff), Drew Brees (for his record-breaking 5,476 yard, 46 TD season), Jordy Nelson (15 touchdowns in the 9th round? Yes, please.), Julio Jones (took a gamble on a rookie in a good offense), and Marques Colston (Drew Brees' favorite target at WR).
Last year wasn't bad. I still made the playoffs, but I knew going in I had no chance, due to injuries. I did have Tom Brady, Stevan Ridley, and CJ Spiller, but losing Percy Harvin and Rob Gronkowski due to injury pretty much eliminated my team (which finished 2nd in the league in scoring) from contending for a title.
The strategy I have used is a simple one. I want to put myself in as good of a position as possible to win each week. The question I ask myself is: What's most likely to happen? Could David Wilson become a breakout stud with the lead role in New York? Sure. But I'd rather bet on Chris Johnson or MJD. I'm more likely to choose guys in explosive offenses, and to choose proven players early rather than take risks on rookies. I also want yards and targets over touchdowns. Touchdowns are tough to predict. Just ask Calvin Johnson owners last season.
I selected 7th out of 12 in this league. I think the draft went well, but I ended up betting big on a couple of teams. You'll see.
Round 1 - Ray Rice (RB - BAL) - You all know by now I'm a big believer in this guy. Even though he plays in a tough division, he's the focal point of that offense and I think he'll be more involved in the pass game this season. Think of him as a better version of Matt Forte.
Round 2 - Steven Jackson (RB - ATL) - I had three guys on my board when this pick rolled around, the other two being Stevan Ridley and AJ Green. I immediately eliminated AJ Green when the two running backs survived and made it to the 18th pick. I had Jackson at 12th in my rankings, and Ridley at 14th. Not much separated them in my mind, but Ridley doesn't play on third down, and Belichick has been known to lose faith in his running backs very quickly.
Round 3 - Randall Cobb (WR - GB) - Another tough pick here, but I think the departure of Greg Jennings helps Cobb the most. If the Packers continue to use him like they did last season, in a Percy Harvin type role, Cobb should easily catch 100 passes. Targets are what I'm interested in early, and I'll take the guy that should be Aaron Rodgers' top target.
Round 4 - Tom Brady (QB - NE) - I've waited on QB in most of my drafts, mainly because they have gone fast and furious. They started to in this draft, with Rodgers, Brees, and Manning (DEN), going in the first two rounds. I felt comfortable taking Brady here because he is an elite performer in an offense that averages 70 plays per game. He can probably throw 40 passes per game and rarely throws interceptions. His decision making is among the best all time, and it will minimize my week-to-week risk.
Round 5 - Jordy Nelson (WR - GB) - You don't have to scroll back up to the third round. Yes, I did take two Green Bay receivers. I honestly had Nelson in my top 20 receivers in my rankings, so I'm fine getting him as a second receiver. Yes, there is risk having two guys from the same team in my starting lineup, but there are times last year that I wish I would have drafted Welker along with Gronk. I have no problem betting big on Aaron Rodgers having a great year throwing the football, and having his top 2 targets is a good thing in my mind.
Round 6 - T.Y. Hilton (WR - IND) - I'm all in on him this year. He is a guy with explosive talent, and the Colts need someone to step up outside of Reggie Wayne. I still see this as more of a passing team, and I think Andrew Luck takes a step forward this season. Hilton also has the upside of being a return man, so I see him as a guy comparable to Antonio Brown. I got Hilton a round later than Brown went, and I think Hilton ends up producing numbers close to Reggie Wayne level this year.
Round 7 - Lance Moore (WR - NO) - Marques Colston has had injury concerns, and Moore has always been a solid fantasy option, even if he's not always a reliable fantasy starter. Still, I'll take a guy who will probably put up 1,000 yards and 6 scores. Hey, he did it last year.
Round 8 - Kenbrell Thompkins (WR - NE) - I made this pick because I really wanted a guy who has been a favorite of Brady's during the pre-season. If Thompkins evolves into the deep threat that Randy Moss was (or at least close) or that Brandon Lloyd was supposed to be, it will end up being a good pick. I don't mind taking risks this late, and as a 5th WR, I'm looking for upside instead of safeness.
Round 9 - Chris Givens (WR - STL) - Another guy who is a great deep ball threat, and as my sixth receiver, I'm fine taking a chance that Sam Bradford takes a step forward this season. I think the Rams end up throwing a lot this year, especially without Steven Jackson, so I think Givens has breakout potential.
Round 10 - Chris Ivory (RB - NYJ) - Bilal Powell is currently the #1 RB on the team's official depth chart, but I think Ivory takes over the job early. Like by week 2. Ivory is the better back, and I think the Jets management sees that in week 1.
Round 11 - Vick Ballard (RB - IND) - Ballard is currently first on the team's official depth chart, but I think Bradhsaw is the better back. However, Bradshaw was not available here, as he went 5 rounds earlier. I'm fine taking a guy who could rack up some big yards in week 1 against Oakland, and possibly look into trading him. Or, I could hold on to him in case Bradshaw's injury problems re-surface.
Round 12 - Zach Sudfeld (TE - NE) - I'm either going to look really smart or really dumb this year. I'm willing to bet on Tom Brady throwing to his tight ends, though.
Round 13 - Baltimore (D/ST - BAL) - Give me a defense that will put pressure on the QB and plays in a division without a high-scoring threat. The Ravens have more speed on defense this year, and even with the leadership losses, I still think they are very talented.
Round 14 - Jacquizz Rodgers (RB - ATL) - Simply a handcuff for S-Jax.
Round 15 - Greg Zuerlein (K - STL) - Legatron! Hopefully he can hit a few more 50 yard field goals this year.
So, I ended up betting big on the Patriots and Packers, especially with their passing games. I think I will be able to compete on a weekly basis, and that's really all that matters.
Good luck to all of you in your Fantasy Football league(s) this year!
Last year wasn't bad. I still made the playoffs, but I knew going in I had no chance, due to injuries. I did have Tom Brady, Stevan Ridley, and CJ Spiller, but losing Percy Harvin and Rob Gronkowski due to injury pretty much eliminated my team (which finished 2nd in the league in scoring) from contending for a title.
The strategy I have used is a simple one. I want to put myself in as good of a position as possible to win each week. The question I ask myself is: What's most likely to happen? Could David Wilson become a breakout stud with the lead role in New York? Sure. But I'd rather bet on Chris Johnson or MJD. I'm more likely to choose guys in explosive offenses, and to choose proven players early rather than take risks on rookies. I also want yards and targets over touchdowns. Touchdowns are tough to predict. Just ask Calvin Johnson owners last season.
I selected 7th out of 12 in this league. I think the draft went well, but I ended up betting big on a couple of teams. You'll see.
Round 1 - Ray Rice (RB - BAL) - You all know by now I'm a big believer in this guy. Even though he plays in a tough division, he's the focal point of that offense and I think he'll be more involved in the pass game this season. Think of him as a better version of Matt Forte.
Round 2 - Steven Jackson (RB - ATL) - I had three guys on my board when this pick rolled around, the other two being Stevan Ridley and AJ Green. I immediately eliminated AJ Green when the two running backs survived and made it to the 18th pick. I had Jackson at 12th in my rankings, and Ridley at 14th. Not much separated them in my mind, but Ridley doesn't play on third down, and Belichick has been known to lose faith in his running backs very quickly.
Round 3 - Randall Cobb (WR - GB) - Another tough pick here, but I think the departure of Greg Jennings helps Cobb the most. If the Packers continue to use him like they did last season, in a Percy Harvin type role, Cobb should easily catch 100 passes. Targets are what I'm interested in early, and I'll take the guy that should be Aaron Rodgers' top target.
Round 4 - Tom Brady (QB - NE) - I've waited on QB in most of my drafts, mainly because they have gone fast and furious. They started to in this draft, with Rodgers, Brees, and Manning (DEN), going in the first two rounds. I felt comfortable taking Brady here because he is an elite performer in an offense that averages 70 plays per game. He can probably throw 40 passes per game and rarely throws interceptions. His decision making is among the best all time, and it will minimize my week-to-week risk.
Round 5 - Jordy Nelson (WR - GB) - You don't have to scroll back up to the third round. Yes, I did take two Green Bay receivers. I honestly had Nelson in my top 20 receivers in my rankings, so I'm fine getting him as a second receiver. Yes, there is risk having two guys from the same team in my starting lineup, but there are times last year that I wish I would have drafted Welker along with Gronk. I have no problem betting big on Aaron Rodgers having a great year throwing the football, and having his top 2 targets is a good thing in my mind.
Round 6 - T.Y. Hilton (WR - IND) - I'm all in on him this year. He is a guy with explosive talent, and the Colts need someone to step up outside of Reggie Wayne. I still see this as more of a passing team, and I think Andrew Luck takes a step forward this season. Hilton also has the upside of being a return man, so I see him as a guy comparable to Antonio Brown. I got Hilton a round later than Brown went, and I think Hilton ends up producing numbers close to Reggie Wayne level this year.
Round 7 - Lance Moore (WR - NO) - Marques Colston has had injury concerns, and Moore has always been a solid fantasy option, even if he's not always a reliable fantasy starter. Still, I'll take a guy who will probably put up 1,000 yards and 6 scores. Hey, he did it last year.
Round 8 - Kenbrell Thompkins (WR - NE) - I made this pick because I really wanted a guy who has been a favorite of Brady's during the pre-season. If Thompkins evolves into the deep threat that Randy Moss was (or at least close) or that Brandon Lloyd was supposed to be, it will end up being a good pick. I don't mind taking risks this late, and as a 5th WR, I'm looking for upside instead of safeness.
Round 9 - Chris Givens (WR - STL) - Another guy who is a great deep ball threat, and as my sixth receiver, I'm fine taking a chance that Sam Bradford takes a step forward this season. I think the Rams end up throwing a lot this year, especially without Steven Jackson, so I think Givens has breakout potential.
Round 10 - Chris Ivory (RB - NYJ) - Bilal Powell is currently the #1 RB on the team's official depth chart, but I think Ivory takes over the job early. Like by week 2. Ivory is the better back, and I think the Jets management sees that in week 1.
Round 11 - Vick Ballard (RB - IND) - Ballard is currently first on the team's official depth chart, but I think Bradhsaw is the better back. However, Bradshaw was not available here, as he went 5 rounds earlier. I'm fine taking a guy who could rack up some big yards in week 1 against Oakland, and possibly look into trading him. Or, I could hold on to him in case Bradshaw's injury problems re-surface.
Round 12 - Zach Sudfeld (TE - NE) - I'm either going to look really smart or really dumb this year. I'm willing to bet on Tom Brady throwing to his tight ends, though.
Round 13 - Baltimore (D/ST - BAL) - Give me a defense that will put pressure on the QB and plays in a division without a high-scoring threat. The Ravens have more speed on defense this year, and even with the leadership losses, I still think they are very talented.
Round 14 - Jacquizz Rodgers (RB - ATL) - Simply a handcuff for S-Jax.
Round 15 - Greg Zuerlein (K - STL) - Legatron! Hopefully he can hit a few more 50 yard field goals this year.
So, I ended up betting big on the Patriots and Packers, especially with their passing games. I think I will be able to compete on a weekly basis, and that's really all that matters.
Good luck to all of you in your Fantasy Football league(s) this year!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
