BCS Thoughts

After looking at the wins and losses from this weekend, I thought I had a pretty good idea of who was going to end up where in the BCS games:

Oregon v. Auburn for the title
Wisconsin v. Stanford (Rose)
Ohio State v. TCU (Sugar)
Arkansas/SC v. Va Tech/FSU (Orange)
Oklahoma/Nebraska v. Big East/UConn/WVu (Fiesta)

Of course, we then have to deal with the fact that, frankly, I have very little idea how the BCS works. Apparently there's all sorts of complex politickin' to take into account. Of course there is. Anyway, Andy Staples cleared up some of my misconceptions today.

Here's his projections:

Oregon v. Auburn (BCS)
Wisconsin v. TCU (Rose) <-- The Rose Bowl is obligated to take TCU over Stanford if Oregon is in the national title game. Did not know that.
Ohio State v. Arkansas (Sugar)
Stanford v. ACC (Orange)
B12 v. Big East (Fiesta)

There are at least two teams left that can throw some pretty major monkey wrenches into the process. One is Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks, who get Auburn in the SEC title game. If they can win, and they've been good all year featuring one of the best freshman RBs I can remember (Marcus Lattimore), then I believe either TCU or Wisconsin gets into the national title game, Auburn slips to an at-large, and SC is in the BCS as well.

Bear in mind, South Carolina already lost to Auburn this year in late September, but that game was on the road and was a nail-biter with a final of 35-27.

The other one is Oregon State, which faces Oregon in the Civil War this week. I think Oregon has been the clear No. 1 virtually all season, and the Beavers are 5-6. But this is a game with a lot of history (check the Wikipedia page) and rivalry games are often wild. Don't tell Michigan that, though. Anyway, I'm sure this will all be analyzed to death in the coming weeks, but I wanted to get my two cents in.