Thursday, September 23, 2010
09/23/10 Picks I like
In a new column gimmick (maybe I’ll start up weekend watch again), every Thursday I am going to list out my favorite gambling lines for the upcoming weekend of College Football. I will also point our which games I am actually gambling on (legally purchased in Las Vegas). There was no Vegas trip this week, so I have no actual bets.
A few notes about lines in general.
1. Lines are NOT what Vegas thinks is going to happen. The lines are what Vegas thinks will convince the public to bet on the game.
2. Vegas knows big name teams (think Notre Dame, Southern Cal, Yankees, Cowboys, Red Sox) will have more money bet on them because Joe Fan hears about these teams all the time and will adjust their lines accordingly.
3. Vegas is close to Los Angeles and has a lot of visitors from there. They know LA fans will bet on their teams and will adjust their lines accordingly.
Over/Under –A wager in which Vegas will predict a number for a statistic in a given game (usually the combined score of the two teams), and bettors wager that the actual number in the game will be either higher or lower than that number.
Money Line – Bet on one team with no line. Payouts are changed to keep betting equal.
-140: A bet of $140 is place in order to win $100
+140: A bet of $100 wins $140
A quick note, I will pick more college games because I think there is more potential to win money compared to NFL where Vegas only has to forecast 16 games and teams are very close talent wise. Normally I don’t like picking road teams, but I have a bunch this week.
TCU -18 @ SMU
TCU is rolling right now and needs style points to jump Boise State and stay in front of Oregon in the polls. I see TCU rolling this week and winning by more then 18.
Eastern Michigan +44 @ Ohio State
I normally don’t like taking high lines because I am unsure if the team is going to keep scoring or just run the ball out with a big lead. 44 points is a ton, and I see OSU getting up 28-0 quickly and then taking the foot off the gas and winning 48-7.
Oklahoma @ Cincinnati Over 52 points.
I know Cincinnati has not been as good as expected and Oklahoma does play good defense. I See Oklahoma scoring 40 some leaving Cinncy to only needing two touchdowns.
Arkansas +7.5 vs Alabama
I know Alabama has looked great and handled the Arkansas last year. I think Arkansas is currently overrated (really who did they beat to become a top 15 team), but they have a big, expierenced QB who is playing well and they are at home. I don’t know if I see Arkansas winning, but at least covering.
Stanford -5 @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame is coming off a tough loss while Stanford has been pummeling people this year. I see Stanford winning big.
Indiana -22 vs Akron
Akron is awful, IU scores a lot of points this year. I see IU winning in a blowout.
Tennessee +3 @ New York Giants
Giants looked awful last week, and the Titans turned the ball over a million times in their loss. They will have that straightened out and I think win the game out right, but the three points help.
Atlanta +4 @ New Orleans
I actually do not have that much faith in Atlanta this year, but New Orleans played on Monday night, on the West Coast. They didn’t get home until Tuesday at 5 AM. They will have a short groggy week of practice and think Atlanta will take advantage.