Some North Side Perspective

[Editor's Note: This piece is written by guest writer and potential full time armchairsuperstar.blogspot.com writer Derek Wilson. Let us know what you think]

Hello blog universe! I think it’s about time for what the masses that read this blog have been clamoring for: A CUBS fans perspective!

Let me start by introducing myself. My name is Derek and I have been a diehard Cub’s fan for as long as I can remember. I won’t go into the drama that this affliction causes at least once a year in my life…mostly because I am fairly certain that if you are a living, breathing, human being you probably have a good idea.

As I sit here in my apartment 3 blocks from what I like to call the biggest beer garden in the country, Cubbie fever has already begun to sweep across the north side of Chicago. Anybody who is remotely a Cubs fan knows that every year Spring breeds optimism in Cub nation at about the same rate rabbits breed in general. Whether this year culminates in something that hasn’t happened since America’s fattest president took office remains to be seen.

While the Cubs are off to a solid 5-2 start, that means there are still 155 games left. So here are my thoughts, predictions, and general ramblings for the rest of the season that is quickly 1/23rd of the way completed. Grab yourself a newly Kraeusened Old Style and enjoy.

OF:

Reed Johnson and his amazing defense continues to impress me. If you haven’t seen this catch, watch it…and then watch it again to appreciate just how awesome it was. That is the second year in a row that Reed has made a ridiculous play in the outfield. With his defense and bat (and the questionable health of Milton Bradley) I don’t think he should ride the pine as much as he does. I think we will see Reed’s playing time increase as the season goes on, and with him in the lineup more and more I think we will see this team take off come June.

Now it is time for a quick English lesson. The following is the Dictionary.com definition of the word enigma: “a person of puzzling or contradictory character.” They might as well paste a picture of Kosuke Fukudome on their website next to that word. As much as I would like to believe that Kosuke will continue this current tear for the rest of the year, he showed last year that he can fall off the map for months at a time. I think that the poor second half showing by Kosuke last year was more a matter of the Wrigley faithful getting in his head as he struggled to get acclimated to our culture. I think we will see a more consistent Kosuke who will finish this year with a .300 average, .400 OBP and double digit homers and steals.

We can already see that Alfonso Soriano is poised for a gigantic year. He is my pick for MVP as I think he will hit over 40 home runs and drive in 100 this year, even out of the lead-off spot.
Bradley has had great plate discipline so far, which I love, but has already shown that his health will be a major question mark all year. He already turned an ankle rounding first base and now has this tight groin. I’m hoping for 130 game out of Milton, but if I was betting I wouldn’t go over 110.


IF:

I think that the rest of the Cubs line-up is solidly built, with a nice blend of righties and lefties. I think Mike Fontenot will produce with his everyday role while I am still a bit skeptical of his defense. I think the defense up the middle could cost the cubs a game or two, with the Cajun connection of Fonty/Ryan Theriot.

Derrek Lee is starting to lose me as a fan. His approach at the plate is driving me crazy and his body language just makes it seem like he is not confident in himself. I hope that he can turn it around, but he needs to move down in the order. I think we will see quite a few GIDPs out of him again this year and I may throw my remote through my tv because of it.

Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto will both produce this year. I like Lou’s approach of keeping Soto down in the order to keep his mind on calling the games and take the pressure off his bat. He’s still a young player experience-wise and could falter on defense if his offense begins to slump at all. Ramirez should be hitting 3rd or 4th in the order to try and maximize his at-bats. I think we will see him have his best statistical season of his career in 2009.

SP:

The first thing I need to discuss here is the great game that Ted Lilly pitched in the home opener against the Rockies. He was one out shy of making it through 7 innings of hitless ball to go along with 8Ks, great game for Ted. All I heard after Lilly’s first start this season was that he is going to give up a ton of home runs this year and that the Cubs were in trouble. Nobody seemed to care that the Cubs opened that game up with a pair of four run innings and were winning 8-0 before the Astros knew what hit them. I’m of the belief that a pitcher should go out and throw strikes with a lead like that, and that is exactly what Lilly did. His final stats weren’t to glamorous because he gave up 4 home runs, but he walked zero and the Cubs won. A major league pitcher doesn’t win 17 games in a year by accident; I think Lilly is going to lead the team in wins this year.

The rest of the rotation should produce as well. I want to see Ryan Dempster master the control that we saw him lose in the playoffs last year. Carlos Zambrano looks good so far and should finish up with his typical stats. Rich Harden looked dominant in his lone start so far. I think that we will see him pitch very well when healthy, and if he can get 25 starts could post a sub 2.5 ERA and double digit wins. Sean Marshall will be an interesting 5th starter for us. When given a chance to start he has looked like a solid #3 starter. He will produce when given the chance and gives us another lefty to complement Lilly. I like Sean to finish up with an ERA in the high 3s and double digit wins as well.

RP:

If the cubs have an Achilles Heel this is where it is. Neal Cotts is the lone lefty in the bullpen and struggled with inconsistency since we obtained him from that team on the South side. Not sure the rest of the bullpen is worth mentioning…most of them scare the crap out of me when they take the mound. We could get a pleasant surprise form Aaron Heilman or David Patton though; I like them both so far. If the bullpen doesn’t shape up the Cubs season could end up resembling this or this.

I’m not sold on Kevin Gregg at closer. He obviously does not have close to the same stuff as Carlos Marmol. But if Marmol does take over as closer, then who gets the Cubs out of bases loaded jams in the 7th and 8th innings? It’s a catch-22. In the end I think that the Cubs stick with Gregg, who will have an up and down season and finish with about 30 saves and a 4ish ERA.

(Side note: Marmol will get his fair share of save opportunities and shine, but is more valuable for now as a set-up man. If Gregg pans out and closes out a championship on the north side this year great, if not, 2 years down the road when Jose Ceda is closing games for the Marlins the Cubs will be regretting this trade.)

Final Prediction:

I have the Cubs finishing up the season with a record of 99-63, falling short of their 100th win on the last day of the season. I think the Cardinals will provide a ton of competition for the division title, but will wind up winning the wild card with 91 wins. The rest of the division will shape up with the Brewers in 3rd followed by the Reds, Astros, and finally, the Pirates.
A couple quick notes:

· All this writing is making me hungry…how about a 4 pound pretzel?? That is what they have begun serving at Wrigley this year. They are calling it the “Northside Twist” and it comes in a pizza box and serves 3-5 people.

· Has anybody tried the newly Kraeusened Old Style yet? I had it last time I stopped in Sluggers and was pleasantly surprised. It is definitely more along the lines of a MGD or Budweiser now, as opposed to Busch or Natty Light before.

Last one, I promise:

· Indiana football commitment Nick Zachery has been named to the USA Football Junior National Team. I’ll be honest, I had no idea there was a Junior National Team, but it is nice to see some accolades for him. He is one of 7 on the team that will be playing his college ball in the Big Ten. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do for our Hoosiers.